California 68, Houston 86
Final. Sunday, November 8, 2026, 8:30 PM ET at Tahoe Blue Event Center. California our rank 105 · 2-2; Houston AP 8, our rank 4 · 3-0.
Who won California vs Houston?
Final: Houston 86, California 68. Before tip-off the model gave Houston a 95% chance to win, with a projected margin of 19.6 points for Houston. The spread was Houston −19.5: California covered, and the 154 points went over an over/under of 142.5. Dedan Thomas Jr. scored 20 for Houston; Michael Cooper had 19 for California.
Prediction logged before tip-off; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Dedan Thomas Jr.: California 10%Houston 90%
The white mark is the call with him: Houston 95%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Houston without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | ||||
| Dedan Thomas Jr. | 4.4 | 90% | −5 | 66–81 |
| Mercy Miller | 4.4 | 90% | −5 | 66–81 |
| Joseph Tugler | 4.3 | 90% | −5 | 66–81 |
| Delrecco Gillespie | 3.4 | 92% | −3 | 65–82 |
| California | ||||
| Jake Wilkins | 2.0 | 97% | +2 | 63–84 |
| Jordan Ross | 1.6 | 96% | +1 | 63–84 |
| Nojus Indrusaitis | 1.6 | 96% | +1 | 63–84 |
| Michael Cooper | 1.3 | 96% | +1 | 63–84 |
Change is in Houston's win chance, in points. Scores read California, then Houston. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Houston −19.5 | 142.5 |
| Model | Houston −19.6 | 147.2 |
| Final | Houston by 18 | 154 |
California covered the spread, against the model's lean. The total went over; the model had it higher than the line. On the margin, the line was closer (off by 1.6 and 1.5).
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
California 2-2WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 99.5 and allowing 78.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| California | Houston | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.8 93rd | 121.6 4th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.4 120th | 89.7 4th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 133rd | 69.4 315th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.3% 201st | 52.7% 54th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.0% 218th | 47.0% 18th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 154th | 17.5% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.2% 319th | 33.8% 71st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 348th | 0.30 35th |
The widest gap: Houston's offense (4th) against California's defense (120th), of 365 teams.
First half
Houston led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.2 points and the total by 5.9.
- At halftime
- California 32, Houston 43
- Projected halftime score
- California 29, Houston 40
- First-half margin
- Houston by 10.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- California, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 55.5 scored, 37.0 allowed
- Houston, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 43.0 scored, 23.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
California
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nojus IndrusaitisG | 30 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael CooperG | 29 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Jordan RossG | 27 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Mantas KocanasC | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jake WilkinsF | 20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Semetri CarrG | 16 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Sammie YeanayF | 15 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Dhiaukuei Manyiel DutF | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amier AliF | 12 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Houston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedan Thomas Jr.G | 35 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Mercy MillerG | 32 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Joseph TuglerF | 27 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Delrecco GillespieF | 26 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Corey Hadnot IIG | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Braden EastF | 16 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Chendall WeaverG | 15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase McCartyF | 12 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Arafan DianeC | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |