Who will win Rutgers vs Houston?
The model gives Houston a 90% chance to beat Rutgers, with a projected score of Houston 82, Rutgers 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston | |||||
| Thomas Jr.G · 29 min | 15.3 | 2.1 | 5.7 | 15+ 51% | |
| GillespieF · 23 min | 11.7 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| Hadnot IIG · 21 min | 9.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 10+ 47% | |
| MillerG · 24 min | 9.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 42% | |
 Rutgers | |||||
| FrancisG · 26 min | 13.6 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 15+ 41% | |
| Smith Jr.G · 20 min | 10.1 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 49% | |
| MarkG · 20 min | 7.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 33% | |
| GurdakC · 19 min | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dedan Thomas Jr.: Rutgers 18%Houston 82%
The white mark is the call with him: Houston 90%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Houston without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | ||||
| Dedan Thomas Jr. | 4.4 | 82% | −8 | 69–80 |
| Mercy Miller | 4.4 | 82% | −8 | 69–80 |
| Joseph Tugler | 4.3 | 82% | −8 | 69–80 |
| Delrecco Gillespie | 3.4 | 84% | −6 | 69–80 |
| Rutgers | ||||
| Tariq Francis | 2.9 | 94% | +4 | 66–83 |
| Christian Gurdak | 2.0 | 93% | +3 | 66–83 |
| Darren Buchanan Jr. | 1.7 | 93% | +3 | 66–83 |
| Jamichael Davis | 1.7 | 92% | +2 | 66–83 |
Change is in Houston's win chance, in points. Scores read Rutgers, then Houston. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Rutgers 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 91.0 and allowing 59.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Rutgers | Houston | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 114.1 60th | 121.6 4th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.7 78th | 89.7 4th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 69.4 315th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.1% 79th | 52.7% 54th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 108th | 47.0% 18th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 109th | 17.5% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 211th | 33.8% 71st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 49th | 0.30 35th |
The widest gap: Houston's offense (4th) against Rutgers's defense (78th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Rutgers 31, Houston 39
- First-half margin
- Houston by 8.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.0
- Projected second half
- Rutgers 36, Houston 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Rutgers, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 42.5 scored, 24.5 allowed
- Houston, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Rutgers
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariq FrancisG | 26 | 13.6 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Darren Buchanan Jr.G | 23 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Lino MarkG | 20 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jamichael DavisG | 20 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Darin Smith Jr.G | 20 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Christian GurdakC | 19 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 55% | |||||
| Rasheed JonesG | 18 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Diego GaravagliaG | 13 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Houston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedan Thomas Jr.G | 29 | 15.3 | 2.1 | 5.7 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 6+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Mercy MillerG | 24 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Delrecco GillespieF | 23 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Joseph TuglerF | 22 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Corey Hadnot IIG | 21 | 9.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Chase McCartyF | 19 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Braden EastF | 16 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 48% | |||||
| Arafan DianeC | 15 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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