Who will win Oakland vs Houston?
The model gives Houston a >99% chance to beat Oakland, with a projected score of Houston 93, Oakland 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston | |||||
| Thomas Jr.G · 27 min | 16.0 | 2.2 | 6.5 | 15+ 55% | |
| GillespieF · 23 min | 12.6 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 35% | |
| Hadnot IIG · 20 min | 10.7 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 10+ 53% | |
| TuglerF · 21 min | 9.9 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 47% | |
 Oakland | |||||
| MashhourG · 30 min | 13.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 38% | |
| Fields Jr.F · 28 min | 12.9 | 7.8 | 1.3 | 15+ 36% | |
| El ShakeryF · 18 min | 6.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 5+ 57% | |
| ThompsonF · 18 min | 5.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 5+ 49% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dedan Thomas Jr.: Oakland <1%Houston >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Houston >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Houston without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | ||||
| Dedan Thomas Jr. | 4.4 | >99% | 0 | 61–91 |
| Mercy Miller | 4.4 | >99% | 0 | 61–91 |
| Joseph Tugler | 4.3 | >99% | 0 | 61–91 |
| Delrecco Gillespie | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 61–92 |
| Oakland | ||||
| Chris Fields Jr. | 1.1 | >99% | 0 | 59–94 |
Change is in Houston's win chance, in points. Scores read Oakland, then Houston. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oakland 0-5LLLLL
- Nov 11L 79-111at Boise StDidn't cover +16.5 · Over 160.5
- Nov 9L 68-109at AlabamaDidn't cover +32.5 · Over 170.5
- Nov 7L 67-90at Santa BarbaraDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 6L 63-81at StanfordDidn't cover +14.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 2L 68-84at Michigan
- Last five
- 0–5, scoring 69.0 and allowing 95.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–4
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oakland | Houston | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.3 138th | 121.6 4th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.8 320th | 89.7 4th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 69.4 315th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 211th | 52.7% 54th |
| Opponents' shooting | 55.4% 362nd | 47.0% 18th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.2% 300th | 17.5% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 37th | 33.8% 71st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 53rd | 0.30 35th |
The widest gap: Houston's offense (4th) against Oakland's defense (320th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oakland 26, Houston 45
- First-half margin
- Houston by 18.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.7
- Projected second half
- Oakland 33, Houston 48
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oakland, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 5 · 33.4 scored, 46.2 allowed
- Houston, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oakland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassim MashhourG | 30 | 13.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Chris Fields Jr.F | 28 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 8+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Warren Marshall IVG | 22 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| RJ TaylorG | 21 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 41% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Ryder BradleyG | 18 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Belal El ShakeryF | 18 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Camden ThompsonF | 18 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| William KassiG | 13 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Houston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedan Thomas Jr.G | 27 | 16.0 | 2.2 | 6.5 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 7+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Mercy MillerG | 23 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Delrecco GillespieF | 23 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 8+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Joseph TuglerF | 21 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Corey Hadnot IIG | 20 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Chase McCartyF | 19 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Braden EastF | 16 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 7+ reb 45% | |||||
| Arafan DianeC | 15 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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