Who will win Akron vs Bucknell?
The model gives Akron a 91% chance to beat Bucknell, with a projected score of Akron 84, Bucknell 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Akron | |||||
| StaveskieG · 28 min | 16.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 15+ 59% | |
| PenceG · 25 min | 13.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 15+ 37% | |
| MahaffeyF · 26 min | 10.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 10+ 51% | |
| OriolG · 18 min | 9.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 10+ 42% | |
 Bucknell | |||||
| PachuckiG · 30 min | 13.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 15+ 37% | |
| LamunoG · 27 min | 10.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10+ 49% | |
| Soroa SchallerF · 29 min | 9.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 10+ 44% | |
| WilliamsG · 27 min | 6.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Evan Mahaffey: Akron 86%Bucknell 14%
The white mark is the call with him: Akron 91%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Akron without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | ||||
| Evan Mahaffey | 2.5 | 86% | −5 | 83–70 |
| Ty Pence | 2.1 | 87% | −4 | 83–70 |
| Tahj Staveskie | 1.0 | 89% | −2 | 84–70 |
| Chabi Barre | 0.9 | 89% | −2 | 84–70 |
Change is in Akron's win chance, in points. Scores read Akron, then Bucknell. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Akron 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 93.5 and allowing 62.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Akron | Bucknell | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.4 96th | 97.3 312th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.1 118th | 116.1 349th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 73rd | 70.3 238th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.8% 94th | 49.6% 249th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.6% 22nd | 53.2% 337th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 253rd | 18.1% 182nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.9% 114th | 28.5% 339th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 95th | 0.26 208th |
The widest gap: Akron's offense (96th) against Bucknell's defense (349th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Akron 40, Bucknell 32
- First-half margin
- Akron by 8.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Projected second half
- Akron 44, Bucknell 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Akron, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 54.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Bucknell, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 28.7 scored, 41.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Akron
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahj StaveskieG | 28 | 16.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ threes 46% | |||||
| Evan MahaffeyF | 26 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Ty PenceG | 25 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Zach HalliganF | 19 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Buddy Hammer Jr.F | 19 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Kamrin OriolG | 18 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 61% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Colin WhiteF | 17 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Chabi BarreF | 16 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 44% | |||||
Bucknell
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander PachuckiG | 30 | 13.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 43% · 3+ threes 53% | |||||
| Luca Soroa SchallerF | 29 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jayden WilliamsG | 27 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Rocco LamunoG | 27 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Patrick O'BrienF | 22 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Kyle MarshallG | 18 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Luke SodenG | 14 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Ethan Marten-ConeyF | 11 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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