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Probable Stats / Men's / Monday, November 23

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Illinois St v Santa Clara

Monday, November 23, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Acrisure Arena. Illinois St our rank 118 · 1-2; Santa Clara our rank 75 · 4-0.

Who will win Illinois St vs Santa Clara?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Santa Clara a 70% chance to beat Illinois State, with a projected score of Santa Clara 80, Illinois St 74.

To winSanta Clara 70%Illinois St 30%
Projected score74–80Illinois St, then Santa Clara
Margin6.0Santa Clara · no line posted
Total154.3no line posted
First half35–38Santa Clara ahead 61%
Illinois St by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30Santa Clara by 40Model: Santa Clara by 6.0Illinois St by 20Evenby 20Santa Clara by 40Model: Santa Clara by 6.0

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Santa Clara
GavalyugovG · 28 min11.93.13.910+ 62%
CastilloG · 24 min11.62.11.710+ 59%
Longcor IIIG · 25 min10.83.22.310+ 54%
TadjoF · 22 min9.45.70.810+ 44%
Illinois St
KinzigerG · 35 min17.42.43.715+ 63%
Messina-MooreG · 27 min12.92.83.115+ 36%
BurchG · 23 min8.82.61.110+ 39%
KlaboG · 26 min8.43.12.510+ 37%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Jake Ensminger: Illinois St 38%Santa Clara 62%

The white mark is the call with him: Santa Clara 70%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsSanta Clara without himChangeProjected score
Santa Clara
Jake Ensminger2.462%−875–79
Sash Gavalyugov2.064%−675–79
Thierry Darlan1.565%−575–79
Fedor Zugic1.366%−475–80
Illinois St
Johnny Kinziger1.875%+573–81
Chase Walker1.675%+573–81
Mason Klabo1.374%+474–81
Malik Messina-Moore1.274%+474–81

Change is in Santa Clara's win chance, in points. Scores read Illinois St, then Santa Clara. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Illinois St 1-2LWL

    1. Nov 9L 59-76at PurdueDidn't cover +15.5 · Under 143.5
    2. Nov 5W 100-55vs Central State
    3. Nov 2L 85-90at Saint Mary's
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 81.3 and allowing 73.7
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    Santa Clara 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 11W 76-71at North TexasCovered −1.5 · Under 154.5
    2. Nov 7W 83-77vs Sacramento StDidn't cover −19.5 · Under 170.5
    3. Nov 4W 95-72vs MilwaukeeCovered −15.5 · Over 162.5
    4. Nov 2W 89-70vs Towson
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 85.8 and allowing 72.5
    Against the spread, this season
    2–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 2 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Illinois StSanta Clara
    Points scored per 100 possessions108.2 110th111.7 78th
    Points allowed per 100106.7 144th101.7 77th
    Possessions a game69.6 302nd72.8 26th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)52.9% 44th50.7% 172nd
    Opponents' shooting51.1% 228th48.7% 54th
    Turnovers, share of possessions18.5% 229th18.1% 184th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.3% 269th31.9% 172nd
    Free throws per shot0.25 214th0.24 266th

    The widest gap: Santa Clara's offense (78th) against Illinois St's defense (144th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Illinois St 35, Santa Clara 38
    First-half margin
    Santa Clara by 3.3
    First-half points, both teams
    72.4
    Projected second half
    Illinois St 40, Santa Clara 42
    Second-half points, both teams
    81.9
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Illinois St, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 32.7 allowed
    Santa Clara, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 42.0 scored, 34.8 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Illinois St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Johnny KinzigerG3517.42.43.72.4
    15+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 41% · 4+ ast 48%
    Malik Messina-MooreG2712.92.83.12.1
    15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 56%
    Mason KlaboG268.43.12.51.4
    10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 45%
    Demarion BurchG238.82.61.11.0
    10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 60%
    Noah ClevelandF237.84.81.10.2
    10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 29%
    Zaxton KingG173.91.01.10.6
    5+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 28% · 1+ threes 44%
    Chase WalkerF158.43.41.60.3
    10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 44%
    Louie Semona IIIF142.51.80.80.5
    5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 39%

    Santa Clara

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jake EnsmingerG317.05.73.11.1
    5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 57%
    Sash GavalyugovG2811.93.13.92.4
    10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 52%
    Brad Longcor IIIG2510.83.22.31.4
    10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 39%
    David CastilloG2411.62.11.72.0
    10+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 54%
    Fedor ZugicG229.03.11.41.2
    10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 39%
    Chris TadjoF229.45.70.80.1
    10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 19%
    Elijah MahiF198.43.51.71.1
    51% to play · 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 48%
    Thierry DarlanG186.04.11.61.2
    5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 46%

    Missed the last game: Elijah Mahi (21 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Mon, Nov 23

    All games
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    2. 1:30 PMprojected 79-79Akron vs Wright St, men's: game page
    3. 2:30 PMprojected 77-71Ole Miss vs Clemson, men's: game page
    4. 4 PMprojected 75-76Yale vs Belmont, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 77-75VCU vs Providence, men's: game page
    6. 11:30 PMprojected 72-83Colorado St vs Arizona, men's: game page
    Illinois St next: at N Dakota St, Fri, Nov 13 · 65%Santa Clara next: vs New Mexico, Sat, Nov 14 · 44%Illinois St: schedule and oddsSanta Clara: schedule and odds