Who won Air Force vs Wright St?
Final: Wright State 102, Air Force 71. Before tip-off the model gave Wright State a 76% chance to win, with a projected margin of 8.9 points for Wright State. Dominic Pangonis scored 30 for Wright St; Kam Sanders had 17 for Air Force.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Kellen Pickett: Air Force 30%Wright St 70%
The white mark is the call with him: Wright St 76%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Wright St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wright St | ||||
| Kellen Pickett | 2.3 | 70% | −6 | 64–71 |
| Andrea Holden | 2.0 | 71% | −5 | 64–71 |
| C.J. O'Hara | 1.9 | 71% | −5 | 64–71 |
| Dominic Pangonis | 1.4 | 73% | −3 | 64–71 |
 Air Force | ||||
| Grant Best | 0.8 | 78% | +2 | 63–72 |
| Caleb Walker | 0.7 | 78% | +2 | 63–72 |
| Kam Sanders | 0.7 | 78% | +2 | 63–72 |
Change is in Wright St's win chance, in points. Scores read Air Force, then Wright St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Air Force
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Wright St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Air Force | Wright St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.2 197th | 112.0 75th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.8 306th | 106.1 131st |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 37th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 314th | 54.6% 9th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.7% 318th | 48.1% 38th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.7% 46th | 18.5% 235th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 54th | 33.9% 65th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.32 10th | 0.29 62nd |
The widest gap: Wright St's offense (75th) against Air Force's defense (306th), of 365 teams.
First half
Wright St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 24.1 points and the total by 27.6.
- At halftime
- Air Force 31, Wright St 60
- Projected halftime score
- Air Force 29, Wright St 34
- First-half margin
- Wright St by 4.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Air Force
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam SandersG | 33 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant BestG | 31 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb WalkerF | 28 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. PattersonG | 23 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Ethan GreenbergG | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Lucas HobinF | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesley CelichowskiC | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli RobinsonF | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Brendan MartinF | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Wright St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic PangonisG | 32 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Chadlyn TraylorG | 29 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kellen PickettF | 26 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| C.J. O'HaraG | 25 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Noah LewisF | 21 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Ilija MilijasevicG | 21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Andrea HoldenG | 19 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah WilliamsG | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Nikola DjapaC | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |