Who will win Air Force vs Pacific?
The model gives Pacific a 75% chance to beat Air Force, with a projected score of Pacific 78, Air Force 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pacific | |||||
| PittF · 29 min | 13.6 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 15+ 40% | |
| WinstonG · 29 min | 12.9 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| NyorhaG · 34 min | 12.1 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 10+ 63% | |
| ThompsonF · 22 min | 7.5 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 5+ 68% | |
 Air Force | |||||
| SandersG · 29 min | 17.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 20+ 38% | |
| BestG · 30 min | 15.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 15+ 50% | |
| HobinF · 27 min | 15.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 15+ 49% | |
| WalkerF · 28 min | 12.9 | 7.5 | 1.1 | 15+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Adriel Nyorha: Air Force 30%Pacific 70%
The white mark is the call with him: Pacific 75%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Pacific without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific | ||||
| Adriel Nyorha | 1.5 | 70% | −5 | 71–77 |
| Jaion Pitt | 1.4 | 71% | −4 | 71–77 |
| Jaylen Thompson | 0.7 | 73% | −2 | 71–78 |
| Air Force | ||||
| Grant Best | 0.8 | 77% | +2 | 70–79 |
| Caleb Walker | 0.7 | 77% | +2 | 70–79 |
| Kam Sanders | 0.7 | 77% | +2 | 70–78 |
Change is in Pacific's win chance, in points. Scores read Air Force, then Pacific. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Air Force 3-1LWWW
- Nov 11W 107-93vs Loyola ChicagoCovered +10.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 8W 89-82vs Idaho StCovered −6.5 · Over 161.5
- Nov 5W 107-58vs Calumet St. Joseph
- Nov 2L 71-102at Wright St
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 93.5 and allowing 83.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Pacific 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 59-62at Long Beach StDidn't cover −5.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 7W 63-52at BradleyCovered +1.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 3W 102-47vs Bethesda
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.7 and allowing 53.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Air Force | Pacific | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.2 197th | 102.1 220th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.8 306th | 105.0 117th |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 37th | 69.1 331st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 314th | 50.2% 209th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.7% 318th | 46.6% 9th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.7% 46th | 18.9% 274th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 54th | 34.5% 32nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.32 10th | 0.25 219th |
The widest gap: Pacific's offense (220th) against Air Force's defense (306th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Air Force 33, Pacific 37
- First-half margin
- Pacific by 4.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.8
- Projected second half
- Air Force 38, Pacific 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Air Force, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 43.2 scored, 41.2 allowed
- Pacific, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 25.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Air Force
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant BestG | 30 | 15.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Kam SandersG | 29 | 17.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 44% · 5+ ast 42% | |||||
| Caleb WalkerF | 28 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Lucas HobinF | 27 | 15.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 44% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Ethan GreenbergG | 17 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| A.J. PattersonG | 17 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Justin HindsG | 15 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Eli RobinsonF | 14 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
Pacific
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adriel NyorhaG | 34 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 57% | |||||
| Gavin RippF | 30 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 8+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jaion PittF | 29 | 13.6 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Jaden WinstonG | 29 | 12.9 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| CJ JonesG | 26 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Jaylen ThompsonF | 22 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Dominick HarrisG | 13 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jorge CarotF | 12 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 29% to play · 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jorge Carot (15 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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