Who will win Air Force vs UTSA?
The model gives UTSA a 60% chance to beat Air Force, with a projected score of UTSA 81, Air Force 78.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UTSA | |||||
| TennerG · 30 min | 13.9 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 15+ 42% | |
| LeGreeG · 20 min | 11.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 10+ 56% | |
| TurnerG · 22 min | 9.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 44% | |
| ColemanG · 19 min | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 39% | |
 Air Force | |||||
| SandersG · 30 min | 19.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 20+ 47% | |
| BestG · 30 min | 16.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 15+ 59% | |
| HobinF · 28 min | 16.4 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 15+ 57% | |
| WalkerF · 29 min | 14.2 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 15+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Isaiah Coleman: Air Force 43%UTSA 57%
The white mark is the call with him: UTSA 60%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UTSA without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | ||||
| Isaiah Coleman | 0.7 | 57% | −3 | 78–80 |
| Air Force | ||||
| Grant Best | 0.8 | 63% | +3 | 78–81 |
| Caleb Walker | 0.7 | 62% | +2 | 78–81 |
| Kam Sanders | 0.7 | 62% | +2 | 78–81 |
Change is in UTSA's win chance, in points. Scores read Air Force, then UTSA. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Air Force | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.2 197th | 102.1 219th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.8 306th | 111.6 280th |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 37th | 71.5 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 314th | 51.2% 131st |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.7% 318th | 50.1% 152nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.7% 46th | 16.8% 51st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 54th | 30.5% 262nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.32 10th | 0.23 321st |
The widest gap: UTSA's offense (219th) against Air Force's defense (306th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Air Force 36, UTSA 38
- First-half margin
- UTSA by 1.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.4
- Projected second half
- Air Force 41, UTSA 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Air Force, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 43.2 scored, 41.2 allowed
- UTSA, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Air Force
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant BestG | 30 | 16.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 3+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Kam SandersG | 30 | 19.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 49% · 5+ ast 51% | |||||
| Caleb WalkerF | 29 | 14.2 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 8+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Lucas HobinF | 28 | 16.4 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ethan GreenbergG | 17 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| A.J. PattersonG | 17 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Justin HindsG | 15 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Eli RobinsonF | 13 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
UTSA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KJ TennerG | 30 | 13.9 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 56% | |||||
| Isaiah WattsG | 23 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Preston TurnerG | 22 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| JJ KellyG | 22 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Josiah LeGreeG | 20 | 11.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Isaiah ColemanG | 19 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Shey EberweinG | 16 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Mike Broxton Jr.F | 16 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…