Incarnate Word 60, Oklahoma St 91
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Incarnate Word our rank 339 · 0-4; Oklahoma St our rank 37 · 2-1.
Who won Incarnate Word vs Oklahoma St?
Final: Oklahoma State 91, Incarnate Word 60. Before tip-off the model gave Oklahoma State a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 24.9 points for Oklahoma State. Luka Bogavac scored 14 for Oklahoma St; Mekhi Conner had 18 for Incarnate Word.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jordan Burks: Incarnate Word 4%Oklahoma St 96%
The white mark is the call with him: Oklahoma St 98%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oklahoma St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma St | ||||
| Jordan Burks | 3.0 | 96% | −2 | 59–81 |
| Kashie Natt | 3.0 | 96% | −2 | 59–81 |
| Julius Halaifonua | 2.5 | 97% | −1 | 59–81 |
| Kanye Clary | 2.1 | 97% | −1 | 59–82 |
Change is in Oklahoma St's win chance, in points. Scores read Incarnate Word, then Oklahoma St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Incarnate Word
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Oklahoma St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Incarnate Word | Oklahoma St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.6 348th | 114.9 54th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 274th | 97.5 36th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 73.5 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 350th | 51.2% 133rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.6% 262nd | 50.6% 191st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 340th | 17.2% 86th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.5% 338th | 35.8% 12th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 229th | 0.28 101st |
The widest gap: Oklahoma St's defense (36th) against Incarnate Word's offense (348th), of 365 teams.
First half
Oklahoma St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 23.3 points and the total by 5.1.
- At halftime
- Incarnate Word 17, Oklahoma St 54
- Projected halftime score
- Incarnate Word 26, Oklahoma St 40
- First-half margin
- Oklahoma St by 13.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Incarnate Word
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mekhi ConnerG | 30 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Brandon McCreeshG | 30 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Godswill ErherieneF | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ismail HabibG | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Max Garcia-PlataG | 23 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| D'Arrae GoodwinF | 19 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Christophe PareC | 18 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Krisnan-Cole IoaneF | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| DJ CasonG | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Oklahoma St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony FelesiG | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kashie NattG | 24 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Jacob WalkerG | 22 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrija GrbovicF | 19 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Parker RobinsonG | 18 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jordan BurksF | 17 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Julius HalaifonuaC | 15 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Luka BogavacG | 15 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Ryan CrottyG | 15 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 |