Incarnate Word at Texas St
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Strahan Arena at the University Events Center. Incarnate Word our rank 339 · 0-4; Texas St our rank 142 · 3-0.
Who will win Incarnate Word vs Texas St?
The model gives Texas State a 90% chance to beat Incarnate Word, with a projected score of Texas St 79, Incarnate Word 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | |||||
| HallF · 27 min | 15.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 15+ 49% | |
| DjobetF · 26 min | 15.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 15+ 50% | |
| PernellG · 23 min | 11.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| FieldsC · 23 min | 10.8 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| Incarnate Word | |||||
| HabibG · 29 min | 10.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 50% | |
| ErherieneF · 28 min | 9.2 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 43% | |
| GoodwinF · 30 min | 8.6 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 38% | |
| ConnerG · 30 min | 7.4 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without DJ Hall: Incarnate Word 12%Texas St 88%
The white mark is the call with him: Texas St 90%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Texas St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | ||||
| DJ Hall | 1.6 | 88% | −2 | 65–78 |
| Quel'Ron House | 1.1 | 88% | −2 | 65–78 |
| Paul Djobet | 1.1 | 89% | −1 | 65–78 |
Change is in Texas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Incarnate Word, then Texas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Incarnate Word 0-4LLLL
- Nov 11L 69-81at UC DavisDidn't cover +11.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 8L 60-79at UTEPDidn't cover +12.5 · Under 141.5
- Nov 5L 54-66vs Chicago StDidn't cover −8.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 2L 60-91at Oklahoma St
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 60.8 and allowing 79.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
Texas St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 72-65at UT Rio GrandeCovered −5.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 5W 135-66vs Howard Payne
- Nov 2W 67-55vs Texas A&M-CC
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.3 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Incarnate Word | Texas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.6 348th | 106.1 142nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 274th | 108.1 176th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 69.6 302nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 350th | 52.4% 63rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.6% 262nd | 50.1% 157th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 340th | 19.2% 304th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.5% 338th | 33.1% 104th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 229th | 0.26 173rd |
The widest gap: Texas St's defense (176th) against Incarnate Word's offense (348th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Incarnate Word 29, Texas St 38
- First-half margin
- Texas St by 8.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.0
- Projected second half
- Incarnate Word 35, Texas St 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Incarnate Word, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 25.2 scored, 45.8 allowed
- Texas St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Incarnate Word
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mekhi ConnerG | 30 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 46% · 5+ ast 53% | |||||
| D'Arrae GoodwinF | 30 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Ismail HabibG | 29 | 10.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 2+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Godswill ErherieneF | 28 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Brandon McCreeshG | 28 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Max Garcia-PlataG | 18 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Jayden ThomasG | 16 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Christophe PareC | 12 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 61% | |||||
Texas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ HallF | 27 | 15.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Paul DjobetF | 26 | 15.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kaden GumbsG | 24 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Robert FieldsC | 23 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Dimp PernellG | 23 | 11.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Quel'Ron HouseG | 16 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| KJ YoungerG | 13 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| David AbisogunF | 11 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 3+ reb 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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