Incarnate Word at Hawai'i
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET at Stan Sheriff Center. Incarnate Word our rank 339 · 0-4; Hawai'i our rank 149 · 3-1.
Who will win Incarnate Word vs Hawai'i?
The model gives Hawai'i a 89% chance to beat Incarnate Word, with a projected score of Hawai'i 78, Incarnate Word 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i | |||||
| DavidsonF · 28 min | 17.2 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 15+ 62% | |
| TrujilloG · 32 min | 13.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 15+ 40% | |
| DengditC · 30 min | 13.2 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 15+ 38% | |
| MatingouG · 23 min | 10.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 54% | |
| Incarnate Word | |||||
| HabibG · 29 min | 10.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 50% | |
| ErherieneF · 28 min | 9.3 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 43% | |
| GoodwinF · 30 min | 8.7 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| ConnerG · 30 min | 7.5 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bol Dengdit: Incarnate Word 14%Hawai'i 86%
The white mark is the call with him: Hawai'i 89%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Hawai'i without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i | ||||
| Bol Dengdit | 1.5 | 86% | −3 | 65–77 |
| Marcus Adams Jr. | 0.8 | 88% | −1 | 65–78 |
| Tanner Cuff | 0.8 | 88% | −1 | 65–78 |
| Chance Trujillo | 0.6 | 88% | −1 | 65–78 |
Change is in Hawai'i's win chance, in points. Scores read Incarnate Word, then Hawai'i. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Incarnate Word 0-4LLLL
- Nov 11L 69-81at UC DavisDidn't cover +11.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 8L 60-79at UTEPDidn't cover +12.5 · Under 141.5
- Nov 5L 54-66vs Chicago StDidn't cover −8.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 2L 60-91at Oklahoma St
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 60.8 and allowing 79.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Incarnate Word | Hawai'i | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.6 348th | 102.3 213th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 274th | 105.0 115th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 350th | 46.8% 355th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.6% 262nd | 52.5% 312th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 340th | 17.1% 74th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.5% 338th | 30.1% 278th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 229th | 0.23 315th |
The widest gap: Hawai'i's defense (115th) against Incarnate Word's offense (348th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Incarnate Word 30, Hawai'i 37
- First-half margin
- Hawai'i by 7.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.8
- Projected second half
- Incarnate Word 35, Hawai'i 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Incarnate Word, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 25.2 scored, 45.8 allowed
- Hawai'i, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 42.8 scored, 31.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Incarnate Word
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mekhi ConnerG | 30 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 46% · 5+ ast 54% | |||||
| D'Arrae GoodwinF | 30 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Ismail HabibG | 29 | 10.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 2+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Godswill ErherieneF | 28 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Brandon McCreeshG | 28 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Max Garcia-PlataG | 18 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Jayden ThomasG | 16 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Christophe PareC | 12 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 61% | |||||
Hawai'i
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chance TrujilloG | 32 | 13.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ threes 44% | |||||
| Bol DengditC | 30 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Zack DavidsonF | 28 | 17.2 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Tanner CuffG | 27 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Tiger CuffG | 24 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Jaden MatingouG | 23 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 50% to play · 10+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Kellen HamptonF | 19 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Marcus Adams Jr.F | 17 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jaden Matingou (25 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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