SMU v Utah State
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Acrisure Arena. SMU our rank 71 · 3-0; Utah State our rank 54 · 3-0.
Who will win SMU vs Utah State?
The model gives Utah State a 61% chance to beat SMU, with a projected score of Utah State 81, SMU 78.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | |||||
| FalslevG · 32 min | 17.4 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 15+ 63% | |
| CallaghanG · 29 min | 13.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 15+ 40% | |
| HallG · 32 min | 13.3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 15+ 38% | |
| TosiF · 26 min | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 36% | |
| SMU | |||||
| SellersG · 26 min | 11.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 57% | |
| Szumert · 22 min | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| ToombsF · 25 min | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 53% | |
| BrumbaughG · 24 min | 10.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 10+ 49% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mason Falslev: SMU 56%Utah State 44%
The white mark is the call with him: Utah State 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Utah State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | ||||
| Mason Falslev | 4.6 | 44% | −17 | 80–79 |
| Dallin Hall | 3.3 | 49% | −12 | 80–79 |
| Will Hornseth | 3.0 | 50% | −11 | 80–80 |
| Karson Templin | 2.3 | 53% | −8 | 79–80 |
| SMU | ||||
| Jaden Toombs | 2.7 | 70% | +9 | 77–82 |
| Oziyah Sellers | 2.6 | 69% | +8 | 77–82 |
| Rowan Brumbaugh | 1.9 | 67% | +6 | 77–82 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. | 1.8 | 67% | +6 | 77–82 |
Change is in Utah State's win chance, in points. Scores read SMU, then Utah State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SMU | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 110.8 86th | 117.4 27th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.4 50th | 102.1 87th |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 33rd | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.0% 42nd | 53.0% 40th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.5% 45th | 49.3% 95th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 343rd | 16.3% 17th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 208th | 32.0% 164th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.32 7th | 0.24 303rd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SMU 36, Utah State 38
- First-half margin
- Utah State by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.7
- Projected second half
- SMU 42, Utah State 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.3 scored, 34.0 allowed
- Utah State, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 28.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oziyah SellersG | 26 | 11.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Jaden ToombsF | 25 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Rowan BrumbaughG | 24 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr.F | 23 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jakub SzumertNA | 22 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| David Terrell Jr.G | 19 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Billy White IIIF | 18 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Johan MunchF | 18 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
Utah State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin HallG | 32 | 13.3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 6+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mason FalslevG | 32 | 17.4 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Solomon CallaghanG | 29 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ threes 41% | |||||
| Will HornsethF | 26 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Kingston TosiF | 26 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Karson TemplinF | 17 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Brayden BoeG | 14 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| AJ BatesG | 14 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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