St Bonaventure v Belmont
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 10:00 AM ET at State Farm Field House. St Bonaventure our rank 111 · 2-1; Belmont our rank 129 · 2-1.
Who will win St Bonaventure vs Belmont?
The model gives St. Bonaventure a 60% chance to beat Belmont, with a projected score of St Bonaventure 77, Belmont 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | |||||
| BillC · 25 min | 14.4 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 15+ 45% | |
| PhilipkoskiG · 26 min | 13.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 15+ 39% | |
| FultonG · 28 min | 11.7 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 60% | |
| Au-DukeG · 26 min | 7.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 10+ 32% | |
| Belmont | |||||
| SmileyG · 32 min | 16.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 15+ 60% | |
| JenkinsG · 27 min | 9.5 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 44% | |
| NeugebauerC · 24 min | 7.4 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 68% | |
| DillonF · 21 min | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zach Philipkoski: St Bonaventure 55%Belmont 45%
The white mark is the call with him: St Bonaventure 60%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St Bonaventure without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | ||||
| Zach Philipkoski | 1.4 | 55% | −5 | 76–74 |
| Benjamin Bill | 1.4 | 55% | −5 | 76–74 |
| Ari Fulton | 1.3 | 56% | −4 | 76–74 |
| Ryan Kalambay | 1.1 | 56% | −4 | 76–74 |
| Belmont | ||||
| Jack Smiley | 1.9 | 66% | +6 | 78–73 |
| Jabez Jenkins | 1.3 | 65% | +5 | 77–73 |
| Aleksa Ristic | 0.8 | 63% | +3 | 77–73 |
| Isaiah West | 0.7 | 62% | +2 | 77–73 |
Change is in St Bonaventure's win chance, in points. Scores read St Bonaventure, then Belmont. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
St Bonaventure 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 88-64vs CornellCovered −7.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 7W 88-49at CanisiusCovered −9.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2L 71-79vs Youngstown St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.3 and allowing 64.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Bonaventure | Belmont | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.6 115th | 106.2 141st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.0 103rd | 106.3 136th |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 215th | 71.5 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.1% 77th | 51.7% 96th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.9% 32nd | 50.3% 173rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 95th | 19.7% 327th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 49th | 31.7% 187th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 285th | 0.25 253rd |
The widest gap: St Bonaventure's defense (103rd) against Belmont's offense (141st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- St Bonaventure 36, Belmont 34
- First-half margin
- St Bonaventure by 1.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.5
- Projected second half
- St Bonaventure 41, Belmont 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- St Bonaventure, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 25.7 allowed
- Belmont, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 26.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
St Bonaventure
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ari FultonG | 28 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Zach PhilipkoskiG | 26 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Taj Au-DukeG | 26 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 40% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Benjamin BillC | 25 | 14.4 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Ilia ErmakovG | 25 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Ryan KalambayF | 16 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 56% | |||||
| Ryan HeathG | 14 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Cameron BlankenbergF | 14 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
Missed the last game: Cameron Blankenberg (18 min a game).
Belmont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack SmileyG | 32 | 16.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Jabez JenkinsG | 27 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Vincent NeugebauerC | 24 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Isaiah WestG | 22 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Ethan SageG | 22 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Eoin DillonF | 21 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Aleksa RisticG | 21 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Matthew ZobristG | 18 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Eoin Dillon (24 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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