Arizona St v LSU
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Acrisure Arena. Arizona St our rank 48 · 3-0; LSU our rank 32 · 3-0.
Who will win Arizona St vs LSU?
The model gives LSU a 61% chance to beat Arizona State, with a projected score of LSU 77, Arizona St 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | |||||
| DentG · 31 min | 12.3 | 2.1 | 6.8 | 10+ 64% | |
| Bashir Jr.G · 22 min | 11.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 60% | |
| RuzicC · 20 min | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 53% | |
| DioubateF · 23 min | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 10+ 52% | |
| Arizona St | |||||
| MurauskasF · 36 min | 21.5 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 20+ 57% | |
| FoxwellG · 33 min | 12.6 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 15+ 34% | |
| CroyG · 25 min | 10.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 48% | |
| ShawG · 34 min | 8.3 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Donovan Dent: Arizona St 56%LSU 44%
The white mark is the call with him: LSU 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | LSU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | ||||
| Donovan Dent | 4.6 | 44% | −17 | 76–74 |
| Mo Dioubate | 3.5 | 48% | −13 | 76–75 |
| Skyy Clark | 3.5 | 48% | −13 | 76–75 |
| Divine Ugochukwu | 2.8 | 51% | −10 | 75–75 |
| Arizona St | ||||
| Paulius Murauskas | 5.6 | 78% | +17 | 71–80 |
| Dillan Shaw | 3.5 | 72% | +11 | 72–79 |
| Joel Foxwell | 2.6 | 69% | +8 | 73–78 |
| Ben Defty | 1.9 | 67% | +6 | 73–78 |
Change is in LSU's win chance, in points. Scores read Arizona St, then LSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Arizona St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 85-63vs HofstraCovered −18.5 · Over 133.5
- Nov 6W 90-63vs N ColoradoCovered −19.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 75-65vs ETSU
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.3 and allowing 63.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
LSU 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 90-50vs Louisiana TechCovered −29.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 6W 92-51vs Texas SouthernCovered −35.5 · Under 161.5
- Nov 3W 100-57vs LSU N Orleans
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 94.0 and allowing 52.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Arizona St | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.0 40th | 113.5 64th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.8 54th | 94.0 18th |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 209th | 71.7 87th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.9% 88th | 52.9% 46th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.9% 214th | 44.1% 1st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 114th | 18.5% 240th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.8% 27th | 32.5% 138th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 154th | 0.25 239th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Arizona St 34, LSU 36
- First-half margin
- LSU by 1.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.6
- Projected second half
- Arizona St 39, LSU 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Arizona St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 29.7 allowed
- LSU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.0 scored, 21.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Arizona St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulius MurauskasF | 36 | 21.5 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 57% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Dillan ShawG | 34 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Joel FoxwellG | 33 | 12.6 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 6+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| JRob CroyG | 25 | 10.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ben DeftyC | 21 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Bryce FordG | 18 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Filip MalesevicC | 17 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Emmanuel InnocentiG | 16 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 27% to play · 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Missed the last game: Emmanuel Innocenti (17 min a game).
LSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyy ClarkG | 31 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Donovan DentG | 31 | 12.3 | 2.1 | 6.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 56% · 7+ ast 50% | |||||
| Saliou NiangF | 24 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Mo DioubateF | 23 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Divine UgochukwuG | 22 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Abdi Bashir Jr.G | 22 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 3.0 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 2+ ast 53% · 3+ threes 52% | |||||
| Michael RuzicC | 20 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Brice DessertC | 18 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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