Who will win Virginia vs Marquette?
The model gives Virginia a 54% chance to beat Marquette, with a projected score of Virginia 75, Marquette 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Virginia | |||||
| De RidderF · 25 min | 15.0 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 15+ 49% | |
| LewisG · 27 min | 12.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 10+ 64% | |
| MalloryG · 26 min | 12.2 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 10+ 63% | |
| GrunlohC · 26 min | 10.6 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 53% | |
 Marquette | |||||
| ParhamF · 27 min | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 62% | |
| StevensG · 26 min | 9.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 10+ 46% | |
| James Jr.G · 23 min | 8.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 10+ 35% | |
| MinessaleG · 19 min | 8.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Thijs De Ridder: Virginia 38%Marquette 62%
The white mark is the call with him: Virginia 54%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Virginia without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | ||||
| Thijs De Ridder | 4.2 | 38% | −16 | 73–76 |
| Johann Grunloh | 4.0 | 38% | −16 | 73–76 |
| Chance Mallory | 3.9 | 39% | −15 | 73–76 |
| Sam Lewis | 3.4 | 41% | −13 | 73–75 |
| Marquette | ||||
| Sananda Fru | 4.1 | 70% | +16 | 77–72 |
| Nigel James Jr. | 3.0 | 66% | +12 | 76–72 |
| Royce Parham | 2.9 | 65% | +11 | 76–72 |
| Nolan Minessale | 2.9 | 65% | +11 | 76–72 |
Change is in Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read Virginia, then Marquette. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Virginia 4-0WWWW
- Nov 10W 95-61vs BucknellDidn't cover −38.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 8W 91-72vs ArkansasCovered −3.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 6W 97-72vs NortheasternDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 3W 89-60vs Drexel
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 93.0 and allowing 66.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 0 under
Marquette 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 70-84at MichiganDidn't cover +3.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 6W 93-32vs Detroit MercyCovered −32.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 78-43vs Mercyhurst
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.3 and allowing 53.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Virginia | Marquette | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 119.9 14th | 114.7 56th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.9 26th | 92.0 11th |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 209th | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.3% 71st | 50.0% 224th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.9% 210th | 47.7% 26th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 211th | 16.4% 20th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.0% 8th | 35.2% 20th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 327th | 0.21 359th |
The widest gap: Virginia's defense (26th) against Marquette's offense (56th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Virginia 35, Marquette 35
- First-half margin
- Virginia by 0.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Projected second half
- Virginia 40, Marquette 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 47.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
- Marquette, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 22.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LewisG | 27 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Johann GrunlohC | 26 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Chance MalloryG | 26 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Thijs De RidderF | 25 | 15.0 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Nolan AdekunleF | 24 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Kalu AnyaF | 13 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Elijah GertrudeG | 12 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jan VideG | 12 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
Marquette
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce ParhamF | 27 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Adrien StevensG | 26 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Sananda FruF | 24 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Nigel James Jr.G | 23 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Nolan MinessaleG | 19 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Damarius OwensSF | 16 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Colin PorterG | 15 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Alex EgbuonuSF | 15 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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