Wake Forest v Mississippi St
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Imperial Arena. Wake Forest our rank 89 · 2-1; Mississippi St our rank 51 · 3-0.
Who will win Wake Forest vs Mississippi St?
The model gives Mississippi State a 71% chance to beat Wake Forest, with a projected score of Mississippi St 79, Wake Forest 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | |||||
| HubbardG · 28 min | 17.6 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 15+ 64% | |
| JohnsonG · 20 min | 9.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 10+ 44% | |
| HamiltonF · 23 min | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| SimpkinsG · 20 min | 9.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 10+ 42% | |
| Wake Forest | |||||
| KennedyG · 33 min | 16.0 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 15+ 55% | |
| PlacideF · 28 min | 12.4 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 10+ 65% | |
| RayG · 23 min | 8.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 37% | |
| McDowellG · 25 min | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Josh Hubbard: Wake Forest 40%Mississippi St 60%
The white mark is the call with him: Mississippi St 71%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Mississippi St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | ||||
| Josh Hubbard | 3.3 | 60% | −11 | 74–77 |
| Tajuan Simpkins | 2.7 | 62% | −9 | 74–77 |
| Kimani Hamilton | 2.2 | 63% | −8 | 74–78 |
| RJ Johnson | 2.0 | 64% | −7 | 74–78 |
| Wake Forest | ||||
| Kevair Kennedy | 2.9 | 79% | +8 | 71–80 |
| Jamari McDowell | 1.9 | 76% | +5 | 72–80 |
| Xander Pintelon | 1.5 | 75% | +4 | 72–79 |
| Justin Ray | 1.3 | 75% | +4 | 72–79 |
Change is in Mississippi St's win chance, in points. Scores read Wake Forest, then Mississippi St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Wake Forest 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 82-64vs Charleston SoDidn't cover −18.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 5L 51-74at VanderbiltDidn't cover +17.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 83-62vs MD Eastern
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 72.0 and allowing 66.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Mississippi St 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 98-57vs Jackson StCovered −24.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 5W 82-44vs N'Western StCovered −21.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 106-88vs Tennessee Tech
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.3 and allowing 63.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Wake Forest | Mississippi St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.5 116th | 116.1 36th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.5 51st | 100.3 64th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 71.9 73rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 212th | 52.7% 53rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.0% 144th | 49.9% 139th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 105th | 17.9% 163rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 233rd | 36.4% 4th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 285th | 0.26 205th |
The widest gap: Mississippi St's defense (64th) against Wake Forest's offense (116th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Wake Forest 34, Mississippi St 37
- First-half margin
- Mississippi St by 3.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- Wake Forest 39, Mississippi St 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Wake Forest, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 31.3 allowed
- Mississippi St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 51.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Wake Forest
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevair KennedyG | 33 | 16.0 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Gavin PlacideF | 28 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jamari McDowellG | 25 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Isaac CarrG | 24 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Justin RayG | 23 | 8.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Xander PintelonF | 21 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Gallagher PlacideF | 16 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Ring NyeriF | 11 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Mississippi St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh HubbardG | 28 | 17.6 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Kimani HamiltonF | 23 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Thomas BassongF | 22 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| RJ JohnsonG | 20 | 9.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Tajuan SimpkinsG | 20 | 9.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| ND OkaforC | 17 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| King GraceG | 16 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Kendyl SandersF | 15 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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