Memphis v Penn State
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Imperial Arena. Memphis our rank 74 · 2-1; Penn State our rank 100 · 3-1.
Who will win Memphis vs Penn State?
The model gives Memphis a 63% chance to beat Penn State, with a projected score of Memphis 85, Penn State 81.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | |||||
| ReidG · 31 min | 20.9 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 20+ 54% | |
| AlmodovarG · 28 min | 17.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 15+ 61% | |
| WeeksF · 28 min | 17.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 15+ 60% | |
| VaversF · 30 min | 14.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 15+ 43% | |
| Penn State | |||||
| JuricF · 28 min | 15.0 | 9.6 | 0.8 | 15+ 49% | |
| PrkacinF · 25 min | 13.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 15+ 41% | |
| ReedF · 29 min | 13.4 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 15+ 39% | |
| ByersF · 28 min | 10.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 10+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jayden Reid: Memphis 54%Penn State 46%
The white mark is the call with him: Memphis 63%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Memphis without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | ||||
| Jayden Reid | 2.7 | 54% | −9 | 83–82 |
| Rihards Vavers | 2.3 | 55% | −8 | 84–82 |
| Tylik Weeks | 1.9 | 57% | −6 | 84–82 |
| Luke Almodovar | 1.7 | 57% | −6 | 84–82 |
| Penn State | ||||
| Roberts Blums | 2.5 | 71% | +8 | 86–80 |
| Josh Reed | 2.2 | 70% | +7 | 86–80 |
| Brant Byers | 1.9 | 69% | +6 | 86–80 |
| Ivan Juric | 1.7 | 69% | +6 | 86–80 |
Change is in Memphis's win chance, in points. Scores read Memphis, then Penn State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Memphis 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 81-105at VanderbiltDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 160.5
- Nov 7W 89-88vs VCUCovered +2.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 80-76vs Iowa State
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 83.3 and allowing 89.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Penn State 3-1WWLW
- Nov 12W 72-57vs MercyhurstDidn't cover −20.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 8L 76-82vs PittDidn't cover +2.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 5W 97-93vs ChattanoogaDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 97-57vs Canisius
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 85.5 and allowing 72.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Memphis | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 115.8 42nd | 112.5 70th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.7 126th | 107.2 155th |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 55th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.6% 102nd | 50.3% 197th |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.0% 350th | 51.0% 222nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.2% 1st | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 198th | 33.5% 82nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.33 5th | 0.36 1st |
The widest gap: Memphis's offense (42nd) against Penn State's defense (155th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Memphis 40, Penn State 38
- First-half margin
- Memphis by 2.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.7
- Projected second half
- Memphis 45, Penn State 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 87.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Memphis, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 42.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
- Penn State, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 43.0 scored, 32.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Memphis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden ReidG | 31 | 20.9 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 48% · 6+ ast 45% | |||||
| Rihards VaversF | 30 | 14.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 60% | |||||
| Luke AlmodovarG | 28 | 17.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Tylik WeeksF | 28 | 17.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 3+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Corneilous WilliamsF | 20 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 55% | |||||
| Josh HollowayG | 16 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Maxim LogueF | 14 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 51% | |||||
| Brandin CummingsG | 13 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 24% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
Penn State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dasonte BowenG | 31 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Josh ReedF | 29 | 13.4 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Brant ByersF | 28 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Ivan JuricF | 28 | 15.0 | 9.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 10+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Thomas AllardG | 26 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Roko PrkacinF | 25 | 13.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Francois WibautF | 19 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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