Who will win UConn vs Duke?
The model gives Duke a 70% chance to beat UConn, with a projected score of Duke 75, UConn 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duke | |||||
| Ngongba IIC · 28 min | 13.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 15+ 41% | |
| BlackwellG · 28 min | 13.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 15+ 37% | |
| SarrF · 26 min | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 41% | |
| Boumtje BoumtjeC · 21 min | 8.4 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 36% | |
 UConn | |||||
| MullinsG · 26 min | 13.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 15+ 38% | |
| Demary Jr.G · 30 min | 11.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 10+ 60% | |
| HinesC · 22 min | 8.2 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 35% | |
| RossF · 27 min | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Patrick Ngongba II: UConn 50%Duke 50%
The white mark is the call with him: Duke 70%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Duke without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | ||||
| Patrick Ngongba II | 5.9 | 50% | −20 | 72–72 |
| John Blackwell | 4.9 | 54% | −16 | 71–72 |
| Dame Sarr | 4.2 | 56% | −14 | 71–73 |
| Cayden Boozer | 4.2 | 56% | −14 | 71–73 |
| UConn | ||||
| Silas Demary Jr. | 5.2 | 84% | +14 | 66–78 |
| Braylon Mullins | 3.8 | 81% | +11 | 67–77 |
| Jayden Ross | 3.7 | 81% | +11 | 67–77 |
| Na'jai Hines | 3.6 | 81% | +11 | 67–77 |
Change is in Duke's win chance, in points. Scores read UConn, then Duke. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UConn | Duke | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 117.5 26th | 123.4 2nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.6 7th | 88.5 2nd |
| Possessions a game | 69.5 307th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.6% 178th | 51.7% 97th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.8% 27th | 48.2% 41st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 129th | 18.9% 283rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.0% 58th | 35.9% 10th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 68th | 0.31 27th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UConn 32, Duke 35
- First-half margin
- Duke by 3.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.5
- Projected second half
- UConn 37, Duke 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UConn, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.3 scored, 24.0 allowed
- Duke, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 23.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UConn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silas Demary Jr.G | 30 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 49% · 5+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jayden RossF | 27 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Braylon MullinsG | 26 | 13.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ threes 41% | |||||
| Na'jai HinesC | 22 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 44% | |||||
| Colben LandrewF | 21 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Nik KhameniaF | 18 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Oskar GiltayC | 17 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
| Junior CountyG | 16 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Duke
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John BlackwellG | 28 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Patrick Ngongba IIC | 28 | 13.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Dame SarrF | 26 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Cayden BoozerG | 24 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Caleb FosterG | 22 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeC | 21 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Sebastian WilkinsF | 20 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Deron Rippey Jr.G | 16 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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