Ohio State at UConn
Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at PeoplesBank Arena. Ohio State our rank 50 · 2-1; UConn AP 4, our rank 9 · 3-0.
Who will win Ohio State vs UConn?
The model gives UConn a 86% chance to beat Ohio State, with a projected score of UConn 80, Ohio State 68. The spread is UConn −11.5, with an over/under of 147.5. The model makes it UConn by 12.1, 0.6 points toward UConn, and projects 148 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | |||||
| MullinsG · 26 min | 14.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 15+ 48% | |
| Demary Jr.G · 29 min | 13.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 15+ 37% | |
| HinesC · 22 min | 9.2 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 10+ 42% | |
| LandrewF · 20 min | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 36% | |
| Ohio State | |||||
| Mobley Jr.G · 32 min | 15.3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 15+ 51% | |
| BynumF · 31 min | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| JelavicF · 24 min | 10.2 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 49% | |
| PippenG · 25 min | 9.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Silas Demary Jr.: Ohio State 27%UConn 73%
The white mark is the call with him: UConn 86%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UConn without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | ||||
| Silas Demary Jr. | 5.2 | 73% | −13 | 71–78 |
| Braylon Mullins | 3.8 | 77% | −9 | 70–78 |
| Jayden Ross | 3.7 | 77% | −9 | 70–78 |
| Na'jai Hines | 3.6 | 78% | −8 | 70–78 |
| Ohio State | ||||
| John Mobley Jr. | 3.5 | 92% | +6 | 66–82 |
| Amare Bynum | 3.2 | 91% | +5 | 67–82 |
| Justin Pippen | 2.8 | 91% | +5 | 67–82 |
| Andrija Jelavic | 2.6 | 91% | +5 | 67–82 |
Change is in UConn's win chance, in points. Scores read Ohio State, then UConn. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | UConn −11.5 | 147.5 |
| Model | UConn −12.1 | 148.4 |
| Gap | 0.6 toward UConn | 0.9 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Ohio State 2-1LWW
- Nov 9W 84-74vs MarshallDidn't cover −25.5 · Under 162.5
- Nov 6W 89-65vs Youngstown StDidn't cover −25.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2L 83-94vs BYU
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 85.3 and allowing 77.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Ohio State | UConn | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 118.0 23rd | 117.5 26th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.8 81st | 90.6 7th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 238th | 69.5 307th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.3% 200th | 50.6% 178th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.7% 269th | 47.8% 27th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 202nd | 17.6% 129th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.7% 121st | 34.0% 58th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.32 18th | 0.29 68th |
The widest gap: UConn's offense (26th) against Ohio State's defense (81st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Ohio State 31, UConn 38
- First-half margin
- UConn by 6.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.6
- Projected second half
- Ohio State 37, UConn 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Ohio State, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 31.3 allowed
- UConn, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.3 scored, 24.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Ohio State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Mobley Jr.G | 32 | 15.3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Amare BynumF | 31 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Justin PippenG | 25 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Andrija JelavicF | 24 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Anthony ThompsonF | 20 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jimmie WilliamsG | 19 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| LJ SmithG | 16 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Josh OjianwunaF | 14 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 49% | |||||
UConn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silas Demary Jr.G | 29 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 56% · 6+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jayden RossF | 27 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Braylon MullinsG | 26 | 14.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 44% · 3+ threes 45% | |||||
| Na'jai HinesC | 22 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Colben LandrewF | 20 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Nik KhameniaF | 18 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Oskar GiltayC | 17 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 54% | |||||
| Junior CountyG | 16 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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