South Carolina v USC
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 4:30 PM ET at Acrisure Arena. South Carolina our rank 86 · 3-0; USC AP 21, our rank 38 · 3-0.
Who will win South Carolina vs USC?
The model gives USC a 74% chance to beat South Carolina, with a projected score of USC 79, South Carolina 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | |||||
| ArenasG · 35 min | 20.8 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 20+ 53% | |
| RiceG · 36 min | 20.2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 20+ 51% | |
| LewisG · 24 min | 11.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 58% | |
| RatliffF · 19 min | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 38% | |
| South Carolina | |||||
| FernandezF · 24 min | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 58% | |
| JohnsonG · 24 min | 10.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 10+ 52% | |
| MincyG · 27 min | 8.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 10+ 37% | |
| NecasF · 28 min | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rodney Rice: South Carolina 38%USC 62%
The white mark is the call with him: USC 74%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | USC without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | ||||
| Rodney Rice | 3.9 | 62% | −12 | 73–77 |
| KJ Lewis | 3.3 | 64% | −10 | 73–77 |
| Alijah Arenas | 3.1 | 65% | −9 | 73–77 |
| Jacob Cofie | 2.8 | 66% | −8 | 73–77 |
| South Carolina | ||||
| Kory Mincy | 2.2 | 81% | +7 | 70–80 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas | 2.0 | 80% | +6 | 70–80 |
| Davion Hannah | 1.8 | 79% | +5 | 70–80 |
| Jakub Necas | 1.6 | 79% | +5 | 71–80 |
Change is in USC's win chance, in points. Scores read South Carolina, then USC. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
South Carolina 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 77-41vs Saint Peter'sCovered −21.5 · Under 126.5
- Nov 8W 78-68vs SE MissouriDidn't cover −17.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 3W 81-55vs Stetson
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 54.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
USC 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 77-65at CaliforniaCovered −8.5 · Under 159.5
- Nov 8W 93-86vs Wichita StCovered −6.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 2W 95-63vs Milwaukee
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 88.3 and allowing 71.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Carolina | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.0 101st | 115.5 48th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.2 62nd | 98.1 40th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 172nd | 51.4% 112th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.4% 103rd | 48.1% 39th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 121st | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.9% 113th | 33.6% 77th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.31 22nd | 0.32 8th |
The widest gap: USC's defense (40th) against South Carolina's offense (101st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- South Carolina 33, USC 37
- First-half margin
- USC by 4.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Projected second half
- South Carolina 38, USC 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- South Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 24.7 allowed
- USC, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
South Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub NecasF | 28 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kory MincyG | 27 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Camden HeideF | 26 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| 46% to play · 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Aleksas BieliauskasF | 25 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Juan FernandezF | 24 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Marcus JohnsonG | 24 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Shane BlakeneyG | 20 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Davion HannahG | 19 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Missed the last game: Camden Heide (29 min a game).
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney RiceG | 36 | 20.2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 51% · 6+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Alijah ArenasG | 35 | 20.8 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Jacob CofieF | 26 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 7+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| KJ LewisG | 24 | 11.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Adonis RatliffF | 19 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jadis JonesG | 18 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Darius RatliffC | 17 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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