Memphis 80, Iowa State 76
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Sanford Pentagon. Memphis our rank 74 · 2-1; Iowa State our rank 8 · 2-1.
Who won Memphis vs Iowa State?
Final: Memphis 80, Iowa State 76. Before tip-off the model gave Memphis a 6% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 19.3 points for Iowa State. Jayden Reid scored 26 for Memphis; Ryan Prather Jr. had 19 for Iowa State.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Tamin Lipsey: Memphis 12%Iowa State 88%
The white mark is the call with him: Iowa State 94%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Iowa State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | ||||
| Tamin Lipsey | 4.9 | 88% | −6 | 62–77 |
| Blake Buchanan | 3.7 | 90% | −4 | 61–77 |
| Jamarion Batemon | 3.1 | 91% | −3 | 61–77 |
| Tre Singleton | 2.8 | 91% | −3 | 61–78 |
| Memphis | ||||
| Jayden Reid | 2.7 | 96% | +2 | 58–80 |
| Rihards Vavers | 2.3 | 96% | +2 | 58–80 |
| Tylik Weeks | 1.9 | 96% | +2 | 59–80 |
| Luke Almodovar | 1.7 | 96% | +2 | 59–80 |
Change is in Iowa State's win chance, in points. Scores read Memphis, then Iowa State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Memphis
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Iowa State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Memphis | Iowa State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 115.8 42nd | 116.8 30th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.7 126th | 89.5 3rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 55th | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.6% 102nd | 48.8% 297th |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.0% 350th | 49.1% 75th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.2% 1st | 18.4% 216th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 198th | 33.0% 109th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.33 5th | 0.28 85th |
The widest gap: Iowa State's offense (30th) against Memphis's defense (126th), of 365 teams.
First half
Memphis led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 11.6 points and the total by 14.0.
- At halftime
- Memphis 40, Iowa State 39
- Projected halftime score
- Memphis 27, Iowa State 38
- First-half margin
- Iowa State by 10.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Memphis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rihards VaversF | 38 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Tylik WeeksF | 35 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke AlmodovarG | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| Jayden ReidG | 28 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Corneilous WilliamsF | 22 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh HollowayG | 18 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxim LogueF | 12 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandin CummingsG | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry DengF | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Iowa State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamin LipseyG | 34 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Tre SingletonF | 28 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Prather Jr.G | 27 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Blake BuchananF | 26 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamarion BatemonG | 26 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan JohnsonG | 21 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Taj ManningF | 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Dominykas PletaF | 12 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Leon Bond IIIG | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |