Niagara at Iowa State
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Hilton Coliseum. Niagara our rank 359 · 0-3; Iowa State our rank 8 · 2-1.
Who will win Niagara vs Iowa State?
The model gives Iowa State a >99% chance to beat Niagara, with a projected score of Iowa State 91, Niagara 47.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | |||||
| SingletonF · 24 min | 14.6 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 15+ 47% | |
| Prather Jr.G · 25 min | 12.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 15+ 35% | |
| LipseyG · 27 min | 10.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 10+ 51% | |
| PletaF · 18 min | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 49% | |
| Niagara | |||||
| WoodsG · 27 min | 7.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 32% | |
| MiccoliG · 26 min | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5+ 63% | |
| RottaF · 22 min | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 5+ 57% | |
| RieberG · 28 min | 5.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tamin Lipsey: Niagara <1%Iowa State >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Iowa State >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Iowa State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | ||||
| Tamin Lipsey | 4.9 | >99% | 0 | 50–88 |
| Blake Buchanan | 3.7 | >99% | 0 | 49–89 |
| Jamarion Batemon | 3.1 | >99% | 0 | 49–89 |
| Tre Singleton | 2.8 | >99% | 0 | 49–89 |
Change is in Iowa State's win chance, in points. Scores read Niagara, then Iowa State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Niagara 0-3LLL
- Nov 12L 76-88at Bowling GreenCovered +14.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 7L 67-73vs Morgan StDidn't cover −3.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 2L 46-91at West Virginia
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 63.0 and allowing 84.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Iowa State 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 84-47vs SouthernCovered −35.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 6W 83-57vs Southern MissDidn't cover −30.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2L 76-80vs Memphis
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.0 and allowing 61.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Niagara | Iowa State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.2 364th | 116.8 30th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.2 327th | 89.5 3rd |
| Possessions a game | 69.6 302nd | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 213th | 48.8% 297th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 232nd | 49.1% 75th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.9% 338th | 18.4% 216th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.7% 360th | 33.0% 109th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 238th | 0.28 85th |
The widest gap: Iowa State's defense (3rd) against Niagara's offense (364th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Niagara 21, Iowa State 44
- First-half margin
- Iowa State by 23.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.8
- Projected second half
- Niagara 27, Iowa State 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Niagara, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 31.7 scored, 43.0 allowed
- Iowa State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Niagara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien RieberG | 28 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Logan WoodsG | 27 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Samuele MiccoliG | 26 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Fidel RottaF | 22 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Ruey RueyG | 21 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Tae BlackshearG | 17 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Cole FarrellG | 15 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Trenton WaltersG | 15 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 31% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Iowa State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamin LipseyG | 27 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Ryan Prather Jr.G | 25 | 12.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Tre SingletonF | 24 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Jamarion BatemonG | 23 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Blake BuchananF | 21 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jaquan JohnsonG | 18 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ ast 56% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Taj ManningF | 18 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Dominykas PletaF | 18 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…