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Probable Stats / Men's / Tuesday, November 24

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San Diego St v Iowa State

Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 5:30 PM ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena. San Diego St our rank 78 · 3-0; Iowa State our rank 8 · 2-1.

Who will win San Diego St vs Iowa State?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Iowa State a 89% chance to beat San Diego State, with a projected score of Iowa State 81, San Diego St 68.

To winIowa State 89%San Diego St 11%
Projected score68–81San Diego St, then Iowa State
Margin13.6Iowa State · no line posted
Total148.6no line posted
First half31–39Iowa State ahead 76%
San Diego St by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30Iowa State by 40Model: Iowa State by 13.6San Diego St by 20Evenby 20Iowa State by 40Model: Iowa State by 13.6

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Iowa State
SingletonF · 26 min13.95.91.615+ 42%
Prather Jr.G · 27 min12.32.62.210+ 64%
LipseyG · 29 min10.13.13.310+ 49%
JohnsonG · 18 min9.02.12.410+ 40%
San Diego St
DavisG · 30 min16.62.91.815+ 59%
HarringtonG · 30 min10.92.53.010+ 55%
CherryF · 25 min10.95.01.010+ 55%
GladdenG · 30 min10.22.63.410+ 50%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Tamin Lipsey: San Diego St 22%Iowa State 78%

The white mark is the call with him: Iowa State 89%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsIowa State without himChangeProjected score
Iowa State
Tamin Lipsey4.978%−1170–79
Blake Buchanan3.781%−869–79
Jamarion Batemon3.183%−669–80
Tre Singleton2.883%−669–80
San Diego St
Tae Simmons2.893%+466–82
Elzie Harrington2.793%+466–82
Latrell Davis2.392%+366–82
Chance Gladden1.792%+367–82

Change is in Iowa State's win chance, in points. Scores read San Diego St, then Iowa State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    San Diego St 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 11W 88-75vs BethuneDidn't cover −18.5 · Over 152.5
    2. Nov 7W 77-66vs ColoradoCovered −3.5 · Under 151.5
    3. Nov 3W 102-78vs Fullerton
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 73.0
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    Iowa State 2-1LWW

    1. Nov 10W 84-47vs SouthernCovered −35.5 · Under 146.5
    2. Nov 6W 83-57vs Southern MissDidn't cover −30.5 · Under 145.5
    3. Nov 2L 76-80vs Memphis
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 81.0 and allowing 61.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    San Diego StIowa State
    Points scored per 100 possessions111.7 77th116.8 30th
    Points allowed per 100102.0 84th89.5 3rd
    Possessions a game71.6 95th71.0 157th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)53.8% 18th48.8% 297th
    Opponents' shooting49.2% 88th49.1% 75th
    Turnovers, share of possessions20.4% 350th18.4% 216th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses34.4% 42nd33.0% 109th
    Free throws per shot0.30 37th0.28 85th

    The widest gap: Iowa State's defense (3rd) against San Diego St's offense (77th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    San Diego St 31, Iowa State 39
    First-half margin
    Iowa State by 7.5
    First-half points, both teams
    69.7
    Projected second half
    San Diego St 36, Iowa State 43
    Second-half points, both teams
    78.9
    Tied at the half
    4%
    San Diego St, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 31.7 allowed
    Iowa State, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 29.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    San Diego St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Latrell DavisG3016.62.91.81.9
    15+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 51%
    Elzie HarringtonG3010.92.53.00.6
    10+ pts 55% · 3+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 44%
    Chance GladdenG3010.22.63.40.6
    10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 44%
    Bear CherryF2510.95.01.00.2
    10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 26%
    Tae SimmonsF259.15.40.40.2
    10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 17%
    Isaiah SyG227.83.91.51.5
    10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 42%
    Luca VinciniF153.73.30.80.1
    5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 19%
    Luka SkoricF153.72.60.30.4
    5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 32%

    Iowa State

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Tamin LipseyG2910.13.13.31.2
    10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 41%
    Ryan Prather Jr.G2712.32.62.21.8
    10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 50%
    Tre SingletonF2613.95.91.60.4
    15+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 44%
    Jamarion BatemonG248.42.81.21.9
    10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 52%
    Blake BuchananF215.85.11.70.0
    5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 47%
    Jaquan JohnsonG189.02.12.40.7
    10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 49%
    Taj ManningF183.74.30.90.1
    5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 23%
    Dominykas PletaF179.03.51.10.0
    10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 28%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Tue, Nov 24

    All games
    1. 1:30 PMprojected 75-73Oklahoma vs Pitt, men's: game page
    2. 3 PMprojected 76-73Miami vs TCU, men's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 79-77Vanderbilt at Ohio State, men's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 75-76Texas Tech vs Louisville, men's: game page
    5. 10 PMprojected 82-82Baylor vs Alabama, men's: game page
    6. 11:59 PMprojected 74-74Stanford vs Colorado, men's: game page
    San Diego St next: vs New Mexico St, Sun, Nov 15 · 92%Iowa State next: vs Niagara, Sun, Nov 15 · >99%San Diego St: schedule and oddsIowa State: schedule and odds