New Mexico St v San Diego St
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Frontwave Arena. New Mexico St our rank 262 · 1-2; San Diego St our rank 78 · 3-0.
Who will win New Mexico St vs San Diego St?
The model gives San Diego State a 92% chance to beat New Mexico State, with a projected score of San Diego St 83, New Mexico St 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego St | |||||
| DavisG · 30 min | 19.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 20+ 48% | |
| HarringtonG · 29 min | 13.0 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 15+ 36% | |
| CherryF · 25 min | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 15+ 37% | |
| GladdenG · 29 min | 12.2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 10+ 63% | |
| New Mexico St | |||||
| LavrenovF · 30 min | 13.5 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 15+ 40% | |
| DudleyG · 28 min | 11.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 56% | |
| WashingtonG · 23 min | 8.6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 10+ 38% | |
| OsborneF · 31 min | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tae Simmons: New Mexico St 13%San Diego St 87%
The white mark is the call with him: San Diego St 92%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | San Diego St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego St | ||||
| Tae Simmons | 2.8 | 87% | −5 | 69–82 |
| Elzie Harrington | 2.7 | 87% | −5 | 69–82 |
| Latrell Davis | 2.3 | 88% | −4 | 69–82 |
| Chance Gladden | 1.7 | 89% | −3 | 68–82 |
Change is in San Diego St's win chance, in points. Scores read New Mexico St, then San Diego St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
New Mexico St 1-2WLL
- Nov 12L 58-60at UTEPCovered +5.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 7L 68-109at GonzagaDidn't cover +29.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 3W 73-66vs Western New Mexico
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 66.3 and allowing 78.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| New Mexico St | San Diego St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.0 247th | 111.7 77th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.9 287th | 102.0 84th |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 286th | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.9% 152nd | 53.8% 18th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.2% 299th | 49.2% 88th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.7% 357th | 20.4% 350th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.8% 25th | 34.4% 42nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 87th | 0.30 37th |
The widest gap: San Diego St's offense (77th) against New Mexico St's defense (287th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- New Mexico St 31, San Diego St 40
- First-half margin
- San Diego St by 8.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Projected second half
- New Mexico St 36, San Diego St 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- New Mexico St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 35.3 allowed
- San Diego St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 31.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
New Mexico St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae'Coby OsborneF | 31 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Mark LavrenovF | 30 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| DJ DudleyG | 28 | 11.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jermaine WashingtonG | 23 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Gabe PickensG | 22 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Adrame DiongueC | 17 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 55% | |||||
| Phoenix WoodsonF | 14 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 61% | |||||
| Leopold LevillainF | 12 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 52% | |||||
San Diego St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latrell DavisG | 30 | 19.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 20+ pts 48% · 3+ ast 43% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Elzie HarringtonG | 29 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Chance GladdenG | 29 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 54% · 5+ ast 49% | |||||
| Bear CherryF | 25 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Tae SimmonsF | 25 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Isaiah SyG | 22 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Luca VinciniF | 15 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Luka SkoricF | 15 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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