Texas Southern at San Diego St
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Viejas Arena. Texas Southern our rank 347 · 1-2; San Diego St our rank 78 · 3-0.
Who will win Texas Southern vs San Diego St?
The model gives San Diego State a 99% chance to beat Texas Southern, with a projected score of San Diego St 91, Texas Southern 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego St | |||||
| DavisG · 29 min | 20.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 20+ 52% | |
| CherryF · 25 min | 13.7 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 15+ 41% | |
| HarringtonG · 28 min | 13.4 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 15+ 39% | |
| GladdenG · 28 min | 12.6 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 15+ 34% | |
| Texas Southern | |||||
| PattersonG · 22 min | 11.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| KimbroughG · 28 min | 9.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 10+ 48% | |
| BilalG · 30 min | 9.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 47% | |
| VungoG · 25 min | 7.7 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tae Simmons: Texas Southern 2%San Diego St 98%
The white mark is the call with him: San Diego St 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | San Diego St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego St | ||||
| Tae Simmons | 2.8 | 98% | −1 | 66–90 |
| Elzie Harrington | 2.7 | 98% | −1 | 66–90 |
| Latrell Davis | 2.3 | 98% | −1 | 66–90 |
| Chance Gladden | 1.7 | 99% | 0 | 65–90 |
Change is in San Diego St's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas Southern, then San Diego St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas Southern 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 98-78vs College of Biblical Studies
- Nov 6L 51-92at LSUDidn't cover +35.5 · Under 161.5
- Nov 2L 79-103at Grand Canyon
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.0 and allowing 91.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas Southern | San Diego St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.4 320th | 111.7 77th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.4 343rd | 102.0 84th |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 49th | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.4% 319th | 53.8% 18th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.1% 291st | 49.2% 88th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 83rd | 20.4% 350th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.3% 267th | 34.4% 42nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 67th | 0.30 37th |
The widest gap: San Diego St's offense (77th) against Texas Southern's defense (343rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas Southern 29, San Diego St 44
- First-half margin
- San Diego St by 14.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.0
- Projected second half
- Texas Southern 35, San Diego St 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas Southern, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 44.0 allowed
- San Diego St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 31.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karris BilalG | 30 | 9.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Jason KimbroughG | 28 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Ben VungoG | 25 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Kehlin FarooqG | 23 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Cameron PattersonG | 22 | 11.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Josh AkpovwaF | 19 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
| Xander WedlowF | 16 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Sayed SayedG | 14 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
San Diego St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latrell DavisG | 29 | 20.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| 20+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Elzie HarringtonG | 28 | 13.4 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Chance GladdenG | 28 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 5+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Bear CherryF | 25 | 13.7 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Tae SimmonsF | 24 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 7+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Isaiah SyG | 22 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Luca VinciniF | 15 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Luka SkoricF | 15 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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