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Probable Stats / Men's / Thursday, November 19

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UTEP at New Mexico St

Thursday, November 19, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Pan American Center. UTEP our rank 236 · 2-1; New Mexico St our rank 262 · 1-2.

Who will win UTEP vs New Mexico St?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives New Mexico State a 55% chance to beat UTEP, with a projected score of New Mexico St 73, UTEP 72.

To winNew Mexico St 55%UTEP 45%
Projected score72–73UTEP, then New Mexico St
Margin1.3New Mexico St · no line posted
Total144.7no line posted
First half34–34New Mexico St ahead 51%
UTEP by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20New Mexico St by 30Model: New Mexico St by 1.3UTEP by 30by 10by 10New Mexico St by 30Model: New Mexico St by 1.3

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
New Mexico St
LavrenovF · 31 min15.27.90.415+ 50%
DudleyG · 29 min12.32.42.010+ 64%
WashingtonG · 23 min9.41.32.110+ 44%
OsborneF · 32 min8.05.00.810+ 33%
UTEP
McDanielsG · 30 min16.43.72.415+ 57%
TraoreF · 26 min11.25.91.210+ 56%
MoellerG · 33 min9.93.93.910+ 47%
MillerG · 30 min9.12.22.910+ 42%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    UTEP 2-1LWW

    1. Nov 12W 60-58vs New Mexico StDidn't cover −5.5 · Under 144.5
    2. Nov 8W 79-60vs Incarnate WordCovered −12.5 · Under 141.5
    3. Nov 2L 76-84vs N Kentucky
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 71.7 and allowing 67.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    New Mexico St 1-2WLL

    1. Nov 12L 58-60at UTEPCovered +5.5 · Under 144.5
    2. Nov 7L 68-109at GonzagaDidn't cover +29.5 · Over 151.5
    3. Nov 3W 73-66vs Western New Mexico
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 66.3 and allowing 78.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    UTEPNew Mexico St
    Points scored per 100 possessions101.4 239th101.0 247th
    Points allowed per 100110.2 234th111.9 287th
    Possessions a game69.3 322nd69.8 286th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)48.4% 318th50.9% 152nd
    Opponents' shooting51.5% 260th52.2% 299th
    Turnovers, share of possessions17.8% 144th20.7% 357th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses32.0% 162nd34.8% 25th
    Free throws per shot0.23 324th0.28 87th

    The widest gap: UTEP's offense (239th) against New Mexico St's defense (287th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    UTEP 34, New Mexico St 34
    First-half margin
    New Mexico St by 0.7
    First-half points, both teams
    67.9
    Projected second half
    UTEP 38, New Mexico St 39
    Second-half points, both teams
    76.8
    Tied at the half
    4%
    UTEP, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 33.0 allowed
    New Mexico St, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 35.3 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    UTEP

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Leif MoellerG339.93.93.91.4
    10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 53%
    Cam McDanielsG3016.43.72.42.5
    15+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ threes 42%
    Reese MillerG309.12.22.91.9
    10+ pts 42% · 3+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 52%
    Youssouf TraoreF2611.25.91.20.3
    10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 32%
    Augusto CassiaF235.54.31.30.5
    5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 39%
    Jace WhitingG165.52.01.31.1
    5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 63%
    Donovan CrissG123.91.10.70.5
    5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 38%
    Reid CasonF123.82.60.20.1
    5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 45%

    New Mexico St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jae'Coby OsborneF328.05.00.80.3
    10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 23%
    Mark LavrenovF3115.27.90.40.8
    15+ pts 50% · 8+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52%
    DJ DudleyG2912.32.42.01.9
    10+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 51%
    Jermaine WashingtonG239.41.32.11.7
    10+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 58% · 2+ threes 46%
    Gabe PickensG224.52.03.60.5
    5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 46%
    Adrame DiongueC175.24.40.50.1
    5+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 43%
    Phoenix WoodsonF132.52.40.50.1
    5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 40%
    Leopold LevillainF113.02.90.50.0
    5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 52%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Thu, Nov 19

    All games
    1. 6 PMprojected 80-76NC State vs Murray St, men's: game page
    2. 7:30 PMprojected 76-79Charleston at Drake, men's: game page
    3. 8 PMprojected 77-78Texas A&M at TCU, men's: game page
    4. 8:30 PMprojected 65-73Seton Hall vs Wisconsin, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 75-81Oregon St vs Oregon, men's: game page
    6. 10:30 PMprojected 79-79VCU at Santa Clara, men's: game page
    UTEP next: vs Florida A&M, Sun, Nov 15 · 92%New Mexico St next: vs San Diego St, Sun, Nov 15 · 8%UTEP: schedule and oddsNew Mexico St: schedule and odds