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Probable Stats / Men's / Sunday, November 15

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Florida A&M at UTEP

Sunday, November 15, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Don Haskins Center. Florida A&M our rank 363 · 0-4; UTEP our rank 236 · 2-1.

Who will win Florida A&M vs UTEP?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives UTEP a 92% chance to beat Florida A&M, with a projected score of UTEP 81, Florida A&M 66.

To winUTEP 92%Florida A&M 8%
Projected score66–81Florida A&M, then UTEP
Margin15.6UTEP · no line posted
Total146.8no line posted
First half30–39UTEP ahead 79%
Florida A&M by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40UTEP by 50Model: UTEP by 15.6Florida A&M by 10by 10by 30UTEP by 50Model: UTEP by 15.6

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
UTEP
McDanielsG · 28 min17.43.92.715+ 63%
TraoreF · 26 min12.06.31.410+ 62%
MoellerG · 31 min10.44.14.510+ 51%
MillerG · 28 min9.72.33.410+ 46%
Florida A&M
KempsonG · 27 min14.13.51.915+ 43%
WillifordF · 30 min10.43.80.310+ 51%
JosephG · 29 min9.12.92.310+ 42%
Baker Jr.G · 29 min8.64.02.010+ 38%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Florida A&M 0-4LLLL

    1. Nov 11L 65-87vs Kansas CityDidn't cover +8.5 · Over 144.5
    2. Nov 9L 64-92at UABDidn't cover +18.5 · Over 154.5
    3. Nov 5L 70-75vs Fort Valley State
    4. Nov 2L 69-112vs Florida St
    Last 4
    0–4, scoring 67.0 and allowing 91.5
    Against the spread, this season
    0–2
    Totals, this season
    2 over, 0 under

    UTEP 2-1LWW

    1. Nov 12W 60-58vs New Mexico StDidn't cover −5.5 · Under 144.5
    2. Nov 8W 79-60vs Incarnate WordCovered −12.5 · Under 141.5
    3. Nov 2L 76-84vs N Kentucky
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 71.7 and allowing 67.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Florida A&MUTEP
    Points scored per 100 possessions92.8 355th101.4 239th
    Points allowed per 100117.8 361st110.2 234th
    Possessions a game71.6 95th69.3 322nd
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)48.9% 293rd48.4% 318th
    Opponents' shooting52.8% 326th51.5% 260th
    Turnovers, share of possessions19.2% 302nd17.8% 144th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses29.5% 306th32.0% 162nd
    Free throws per shot0.21 358th0.23 324th

    The widest gap: UTEP's offense (239th) against Florida A&M's defense (361st), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Florida A&M 30, UTEP 39
    First-half margin
    UTEP by 8.6
    First-half points, both teams
    68.9
    Projected second half
    Florida A&M 35, UTEP 42
    Second-half points, both teams
    77.9
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Florida A&M, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 4 · 27.2 scored, 45.0 allowed
    UTEP, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 33.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Florida A&M

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Daisean WillifordF3010.43.80.31.6
    10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 44%
    Antonio Baker Jr.G298.64.02.00.5
    26% to play · 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 56%
    Jayden JosephG299.12.92.31.3
    10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 39%
    Jaden KempsonG2714.13.51.91.3
    15+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 52%
    Ralph Martino Jr.G215.72.51.10.4
    5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 34%
    Chandler DavisG204.72.11.00.8
    5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 54%
    Ben NdourF153.03.10.40.2
    5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 19%
    Ashton WilliamsG143.92.00.80.7
    5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47%

    Missed the last game: Antonio Baker Jr. (34 min a game).

    UTEP

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Leif MoellerG3110.44.14.51.5
    10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 54% · 5+ ast 46%
    Cam McDanielsG2817.43.92.72.6
    15+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 50%
    Reese MillerG289.72.33.42.0
    10+ pts 46% · 4+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 54%
    Youssouf TraoreF2612.06.31.40.3
    10+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 38%
    Augusto CassiaF236.04.71.60.5
    5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 45%
    Jace WhitingG166.22.31.61.3
    5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 45%
    Donovan CrissG134.61.30.90.6
    5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 42%
    Reid CasonF134.43.00.30.1
    5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 54%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sun, Nov 15

    All games
    1. 1 PMprojected 87-78Louisville at Memphis, men's: game page
    2. 1 PMprojected 74-81Boise St vs Nebraska, men's: game page
    3. 2:30 PMprojected 74-75Missouri vs Marquette, men's: game page
    4. 3 PMprojected 78-79Baylor vs Texas, men's: game page
    5. 3 PMprojected 71-76Creighton vs Iowa, men's: game page
    6. 7 PMprojected 71-81Syracuse at St John's, men's: game page
    Florida A&M next: at UTSA, Wed, Nov 18 · 8%UTEP next: at New Mexico St, Thu, Nov 19 · 45%Florida A&M: schedule and oddsUTEP: schedule and odds