UTEP 76, N Kentucky 84
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 2:30 PM ET at Sanford Pentagon. UTEP our rank 236 · 2-1; N Kentucky our rank 251 · 2-2.
Who won UTEP vs N Kentucky?
Final: Northern Kentucky 84, UTEP 76. Before tip-off the model gave Northern Kentucky a 58% chance to win, with a projected margin of 2.4 points for Northern Kentucky. Willie Foster scored 24 for N Kentucky; Youssouf Traore had 18 for UTEP.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
UTEP
No games yet this season: this is its first.
N Kentucky
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UTEP | N Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.4 239th | 103.9 184th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.2 234th | 114.1 325th |
| Possessions a game | 69.3 322nd | 73.4 12th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.4% 318th | 51.5% 110th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 260th | 53.1% 333rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 144th | 19.9% 337th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.0% 162nd | 33.0% 110th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 324th | 0.31 19th |
The widest gap: UTEP's offense (239th) against N Kentucky's defense (325th), of 365 teams.
First half
N Kentucky led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 2.7 points and the total by 16.6.
- At halftime
- UTEP 38, N Kentucky 42
- Projected halftime score
- UTEP 31, N Kentucky 32
- First-half margin
- N Kentucky by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
UTEP
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto CassiaF | 28 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Leif MoellerG | 28 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Youssouf TraoreF | 26 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam McDanielsG | 26 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Jace WhitingG | 26 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Reese MillerG | 25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Donovan CrissG | 21 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Isaiah WardF | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Reid CasonF | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
N Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric AckerG | 38 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Noah PagottoF | 37 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
| Willie FosterG | 35 | 24 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| Gabrielius JokubauskasG | 24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| B.J. Davis-RayG | 21 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Will ShorttF | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan TolliverF | 11 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan RakotonanaharyF | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Juanma RuizF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |