C Michigan at N Kentucky
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 3:30 PM ET at Truist Arena. C Michigan our rank 209 · 3-0; N Kentucky our rank 251 · 2-2.
Who will win C Michigan vs N Kentucky?
The model gives Northern Kentucky a 51% chance to beat Central Michigan, with a projected score of N Kentucky 81, C Michigan 81.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Kentucky | |||||
| FosterG · 28 min | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 15+ 57% | |
| PagottoF · 27 min | 15.5 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 15+ 52% | |
| AckerG · 30 min | 14.2 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 15+ 44% | |
| Davis-RayG · 30 min | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 52% | |
| C Michigan | |||||
| Phat BrooksG · 29 min | 17.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 15+ 62% | |
| GarnerF · 25 min | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 48% | |
| KampenG · 25 min | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 44% | |
| PettyG · 19 min | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Phat Phat Brooks: C Michigan 46%N Kentucky 54%
The white mark is the call with him: N Kentucky 51%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | N Kentucky without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Michigan | ||||
| Phat Phat Brooks | 0.6 | 54% | +3 | 81–82 |
Change is in N Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read C Michigan, then N Kentucky. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
C Michigan 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 91-78vs Youngstown StCovered −3.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 6W 93-50vs Alma
- Nov 2W 83-78at UL Monroe
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 68.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
N Kentucky 2-2WWLL
- Nov 10L 63-125at Saint LouisDidn't cover +23.5 · Over 168.5
- Nov 6L 67-104at Texas A&MDidn't cover +27.5 · Under 172.5
- Nov 4W 102-94at South Dakota
- Nov 2W 84-76vs UTEP
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 79.0 and allowing 99.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| C Michigan | N Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.4 174th | 103.9 184th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.2 268th | 114.1 325th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 73.4 12th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.7% 20th | 51.5% 110th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.7% 200th | 53.1% 333rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 222nd | 19.9% 337th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.6% 78th | 33.0% 110th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 76th | 0.31 19th |
The widest gap: C Michigan's offense (174th) against N Kentucky's defense (325th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- C Michigan 38, N Kentucky 38
- First-half margin
- N Kentucky by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.2
- Projected second half
- C Michigan 43, N Kentucky 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 86.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- C Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 33.3 allowed
- N Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 37.5 scored, 48.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
C Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phat Phat BrooksG | 29 | 17.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 4+ ast 58% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Keenan GarnerF | 25 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jalen KampenG | 25 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Jaxson WhitakerG | 25 | 7.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jayson PettyG | 19 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Conrad LuczynskiC | 18 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Brock MendozaC | 17 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Jake BascomF | 17 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
N Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric AckerG | 30 | 14.2 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 44% · 5+ ast 51% | |||||
| B.J. Davis-RayG | 30 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Willie FosterG | 28 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Noah PagottoF | 27 | 15.5 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Will ShorttF | 20 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Donovan RakotonanaharyF | 17 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
| Ryan TolliverF | 17 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Gabrielius JokubauskasG | 16 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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