GA Southern at N Kentucky
Monday, November 23, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Truist Arena. GA Southern our rank 270 · 1-2; N Kentucky our rank 251 · 2-2.
Who will win GA Southern vs N Kentucky?
The model gives Northern Kentucky a 65% chance to beat Georgia Southern, with a projected score of N Kentucky 84, GA Southern 80.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Kentucky | |||||
| FosterG · 27 min | 16.6 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 15+ 58% | |
| PagottoF · 27 min | 15.8 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 15+ 54% | |
| AckerG · 30 min | 14.4 | 1.6 | 5.0 | 15+ 45% | |
| Davis-RayG · 29 min | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 53% | |
| GA Southern | |||||
| GardnerG · 32 min | 16.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 15+ 59% | |
| SmithF · 33 min | 15.7 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 15+ 53% | |
| Claytor IVF · 35 min | 15.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 15+ 53% | |
| DixonG · 20 min | 9.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 10+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
GA Southern 1-2WLL
- Nov 10L 91-97vs MercerDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 6L 83-95at Georgia TechCovered +17.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 67-55vs Ball State
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 80.3 and allowing 82.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
N Kentucky 2-2WWLL
- Nov 10L 63-125at Saint LouisDidn't cover +23.5 · Over 168.5
- Nov 6L 67-104at Texas A&MDidn't cover +27.5 · Under 172.5
- Nov 4W 102-94at South Dakota
- Nov 2W 84-76vs UTEP
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 79.0 and allowing 99.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| GA Southern | N Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.9 249th | 103.9 184th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.2 294th | 114.1 325th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 73.4 12th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.8% 297th | 51.5% 110th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 116th | 53.1% 333rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 179th | 19.9% 337th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 83rd | 33.0% 110th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 116th | 0.31 19th |
The widest gap: N Kentucky's offense (184th) against GA Southern's defense (294th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- GA Southern 37, N Kentucky 40
- First-half margin
- N Kentucky by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.8
- Projected second half
- GA Southern 42, N Kentucky 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 86.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- GA Southern, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 37.3 allowed
- N Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 37.5 scored, 48.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
GA Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truman Claytor IVF | 35 | 15.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Eltramon SmithF | 33 | 15.7 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 60% | |||||
| Dallas GardnerG | 32 | 16.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Jayden WilliamsG | 20 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Josh DixonG | 20 | 9.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Elidjah SavaneF | 20 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Jeromy DavisG | 19 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Rashaad WilliamsG | 17 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Missed the last game: Rashaad Williams (20 min a game).
N Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric AckerG | 30 | 14.4 | 1.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 44% · 5+ ast 53% | |||||
| B.J. Davis-RayG | 29 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Willie FosterG | 27 | 16.6 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Noah PagottoF | 27 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Will ShorttF | 20 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Donovan RakotonanaharyF | 17 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
| Ryan TolliverF | 17 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Gabrielius JokubauskasG | 16 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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