C Michigan at Dayton
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at UD Arena. C Michigan our rank 209 · 3-0; Dayton our rank 124 · 1-2.
Who will win C Michigan vs Dayton?
The model gives Dayton a 77% chance to beat Central Michigan, with a projected score of Dayton 81, C Michigan 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | |||||
| DerkackG · 32 min | 18.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 20+ 40% | |
| L'EtangF · 25 min | 13.7 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 15+ 41% | |
| FordG · 30 min | 12.5 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 10+ 65% | |
| JosephG · 28 min | 11.3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| C Michigan | |||||
| Phat BrooksG · 28 min | 15.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 15+ 52% | |
| GarnerF · 25 min | 9.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 10+ 41% | |
| KampenG · 25 min | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 38% | |
| PettyG · 19 min | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Amal L'Etang: C Michigan 29%Dayton 71%
The white mark is the call with him: Dayton 77%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Dayton without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | ||||
| Amal L'Etang | 2.0 | 71% | −6 | 74–80 |
| Landen Joseph | 1.0 | 74% | −3 | 74–81 |
| Jaiun Simon | 0.8 | 75% | −2 | 73–81 |
| Travis Perry | 0.8 | 75% | −2 | 73–81 |
| C Michigan | ||||
| Phat Phat Brooks | 0.6 | 79% | +2 | 73–82 |
Change is in Dayton's win chance, in points. Scores read C Michigan, then Dayton. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
C Michigan 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 91-78vs Youngstown StCovered −3.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 6W 93-50vs Alma
- Nov 2W 83-78at UL Monroe
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 68.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| C Michigan | Dayton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.4 174th | 107.8 113th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.2 268th | 107.6 164th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.7% 20th | 50.7% 164th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.7% 200th | 51.1% 236th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 222nd | 19.5% 318th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.6% 78th | 31.0% 235th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 76th | 0.27 153rd |
The widest gap: Dayton's offense (113th) against C Michigan's defense (268th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- C Michigan 34, Dayton 39
- First-half margin
- Dayton by 4.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.5
- Projected second half
- C Michigan 39, Dayton 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- C Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 33.3 allowed
- Dayton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 40.3 scored, 36.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
C Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phat Phat BrooksG | 28 | 15.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 4+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Keenan GarnerF | 25 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jalen KampenG | 25 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jaxson WhitakerG | 24 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Jayson PettyG | 19 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Conrad LuczynskiC | 18 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Brock MendozaC | 17 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Jake BascomF | 17 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
Dayton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiden DerkackG | 32 | 18.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Grant RandallF | 32 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Tristian FordG | 30 | 12.5 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Landen JosephG | 28 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Amal L'EtangF | 25 | 13.7 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Zaide LoweryG | 18 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 27% to play · 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Travis PerryG | 16 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 38% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Jaiun SimonF | 14 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
Missed the last game: Zaide Lowery (19 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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