Who won Southern vs SMU?
Final: SMU 85, Southern 72. Before tip-off the model gave SMU a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 27.9 points for SMU. Jakub Szumert scored 24 for SMU; R'Chaun King had 12 for Southern.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jaden Toombs: Southern 2%SMU 98%
The white mark is the call with him: SMU 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | SMU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 SMU | ||||
| Jaden Toombs | 2.7 | 98% | −1 | 57–82 |
| Oziyah Sellers | 2.6 | 98% | −1 | 57–82 |
| Rowan Brumbaugh | 1.9 | 98% | −1 | 57–83 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. | 1.8 | 98% | −1 | 57–83 |
Change is in SMU's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern, then SMU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.4 343rd | 110.8 86th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.7 249th | 99.4 50th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 164th | 53.0% 42nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.1% 332nd | 48.5% 45th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.2% 364th | 20.1% 343rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 303rd | 31.4% 208th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 189th | 0.32 7th |
The widest gap: SMU's defense (50th) against Southern's offense (343rd), of 365 teams.
First half
SMU led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 13.3 points and the total by 12.7.
- At halftime
- Southern 38, SMU 40
- Projected halftime score
- Southern 25, SMU 40
- First-half margin
- SMU by 15.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin PageG | 28 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Daniel DormuG | 27 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
| Malik FergusonG | 24 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| R'Chaun KingF | 23 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph HunterG | 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Armonii BenjaminG | 16 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Ibrahim OlajuwonC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Duran ParishG | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron HallF | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
SMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub SzumertNA | 31 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Jaden ToombsF | 29 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Rowan BrumbaughG | 28 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Oziyah SellersG | 28 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr.F | 24 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Billy White IIIF | 18 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| David Terrell Jr.G | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Johan MunchF | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic CodieF | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |