Who will win Southern vs Nebraska?
The model gives Nebraska a >99% chance to beat Southern, with a projected score of Nebraska 91, Southern 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nebraska | |||||
| SandfortF · 27 min | 19.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 20+ 46% | |
| FragerF · 24 min | 11.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 60% | |
| WilkinsonF · 17 min | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 59% | |
| KapkeF · 18 min | 9.9 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 10+ 47% | |
 Southern | |||||
| DormuG · 23 min | 7.0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 5+ 64% | |
| PageG · 19 min | 6.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5+ 60% | |
| FergusonG · 20 min | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 5+ 58% | |
| KingF · 20 min | 6.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Pryce Sandfort: Southern <1%Nebraska >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Nebraska >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Nebraska without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | ||||
| Pryce Sandfort | 4.9 | >99% | 0 | 59–89 |
| Braden Frager | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 58–89 |
| Cale Jacobsen | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 58–90 |
| Trevan Leonhardt | 2.3 | >99% | 0 | 57–90 |
Change is in Nebraska's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern, then Nebraska. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Southern 0-5LLLLL
- Nov 12L 61-91at MinnesotaDidn't cover +26.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 10L 47-84at Iowa StateDidn't cover +35.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 8L 68-75at DrakeCovered +13.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 6L 54-106at TCUDidn't cover +27.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 2L 72-85at SMU
- Last five
- 0–5, scoring 60.4 and allowing 88.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–3
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 2 under
Nebraska 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 94-60vs LindenwoodDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 7W 67-58vs ProvidenceCovered −2.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 2W 106-64vs Le Moyne
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 60.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern | Nebraska | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.4 343rd | 118.2 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.7 249th | 94.6 21st |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 164th | 52.8% 48th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.1% 332nd | 47.8% 28th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.2% 364th | 17.1% 76th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 303rd | 31.1% 226th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 189th | 0.28 105th |
The widest gap: Nebraska's defense (21st) against Southern's offense (343rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Southern 25, Nebraska 44
- First-half margin
- Nebraska by 19.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.2
- Projected second half
- Southern 31, Nebraska 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Southern, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 5 · 27.4 scored, 41.8 allowed
- Nebraska, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 29.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel DormuG | 23 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 62% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Malik FergusonG | 20 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| R'Chaun KingF | 20 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Justin PageG | 19 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Joseph HunterG | 18 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Lionel LarvadainG | 18 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Cam AmboreeG | 17 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Aaron HallF | 15 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
Nebraska
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pryce SandfortF | 27 | 19.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| 20+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 50% · 3+ threes 54% | |||||
| Braden FragerF | 24 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Cale JacobsenG | 24 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Trevan LeonhardtG | 20 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Boden KapkeF | 18 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Taj DeGourvilleG | 18 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Damon WilkinsonF | 17 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Jacob LanierG | 15 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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