Southern at Vanderbilt
Friday, November 27, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Memorial Gymnasium (TN). Southern our rank 330 · 0-5; Vanderbilt AP 22, our rank 12 · 3-0.
Who will win Southern vs Vanderbilt?
The model gives Vanderbilt a >99% chance to beat Southern, with a projected score of Vanderbilt 93, Southern 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | |||||
| TannerG · 28 min | 18.0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 20+ 39% | |
| GlassG · 24 min | 17.1 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 15+ 61% | |
| BuyuktuncelC · 25 min | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 10+ 51% | |
| BingF · 23 min | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 37% | |
| Southern | |||||
| DormuG · 23 min | 7.0 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 5+ 65% | |
| PageG · 19 min | 6.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5+ 60% | |
| FergusonG · 20 min | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 5+ 58% | |
| KingF · 20 min | 6.3 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tyler Tanner: Southern <1%Vanderbilt >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Vanderbilt >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Vanderbilt without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | ||||
| Tyler Tanner | 5.9 | >99% | 0 | 60–90 |
| Berke Buyuktuncel | 3.8 | >99% | 0 | 59–91 |
| Ace Glass | 2.6 | >99% | 0 | 58–92 |
| Bangot Dak | 2.5 | >99% | 0 | 58–92 |
Change is in Vanderbilt's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern, then Vanderbilt. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Southern 0-5LLLLL
- Nov 12L 61-91at MinnesotaDidn't cover +26.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 10L 47-84at Iowa StateDidn't cover +35.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 8L 68-75at DrakeCovered +13.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 6L 54-106at TCUDidn't cover +27.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 2L 72-85at SMU
- Last five
- 0–5, scoring 60.4 and allowing 88.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–3
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 2 under
Vanderbilt 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 105-81vs MemphisCovered −13.5 · Over 160.5
- Nov 5W 74-51vs Wake ForestCovered −17.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 93-47vs Bellarmine
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 90.7 and allowing 59.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern | Vanderbilt | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.4 343rd | 119.6 17th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.7 249th | 94.6 22nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 164th | 52.3% 73rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.1% 332nd | 48.8% 60th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.2% 364th | 17.0% 68th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 303rd | 34.0% 60th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 189th | 0.24 280th |
The widest gap: Vanderbilt's defense (22nd) against Southern's offense (343rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Southern 25, Vanderbilt 45
- First-half margin
- Vanderbilt by 20.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Projected second half
- Southern 32, Vanderbilt 48
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Southern, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 5 · 27.4 scored, 41.8 allowed
- Vanderbilt, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 22.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel DormuG | 23 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Malik FergusonG | 20 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| R'Chaun KingF | 20 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Justin PageG | 19 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Joseph HunterG | 18 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Lionel LarvadainG | 18 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Cam AmboreeG | 17 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Aaron HallF | 15 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
Vanderbilt
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler TannerG | 28 | 18.0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 44% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Berke BuyuktuncelC | 25 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Ace GlassG | 24 | 17.1 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ threes 50% | |||||
| Chandler BingF | 23 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Sebastian Williams-AdamsF | 22 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| T.O. BarrettF | 18 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Bangot DakF | 17 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Ant Brown Jr.G | 16 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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