Ball State at SMU
Friday, November 13, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Moody Coliseum (Dallas). Ball State our rank 269 · 1-2; SMU our rank 71 · 3-0.
Who will win Ball State vs SMU?
The model gives SMU a 97% chance to beat Ball State, with a projected score of SMU 83, Ball State 61. The spread is SMU −23.5, with an over/under of 153.5. The model makes it SMU by 21.8, 1.7 points toward Ball State, and projects 144 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | |||||
| Szumert · 22 min | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 60% | |
| SellersG · 25 min | 11.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| ToombsF · 24 min | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 10+ 55% | |
| O'Neal Jr.F · 22 min | 10.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 52% | |
| Ball State | |||||
| BlakeG · 27 min | 10.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 10+ 53% | |
| Guy-KingG · 22 min | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 50% | |
| ParkerG · 23 min | 8.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 34% | |
| LewisG · 24 min | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaden Toombs: Ball State 5%SMU 95%
The white mark is the call with him: SMU 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | SMU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | ||||
| Jaden Toombs | 2.7 | 95% | −2 | 63–82 |
| Oziyah Sellers | 2.6 | 95% | −2 | 63–82 |
| Rowan Brumbaugh | 1.9 | 96% | −1 | 62–82 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. | 1.8 | 96% | −1 | 62–82 |
| Ball State | ||||
| Aaron Fine | 0.6 | 98% | +1 | 61–83 |
Change is in SMU's win chance, in points. Scores read Ball State, then SMU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | SMU −23.5 | 153.5 |
| Model | SMU −21.8 | 144.4 |
| Gap | 1.7 toward Ball State | 9.1 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Ball State 1-2LLW
- Nov 9W 89-64vs Brescia
- Nov 6L 66-69vs Indiana StDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 2L 55-67at GA Southern
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 70.0 and allowing 66.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Ball State | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.2 315th | 110.8 86th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.5 185th | 99.4 50th |
| Possessions a game | 69.3 322nd | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.6% 357th | 53.0% 42nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 92nd | 48.5% 45th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.2% 297th | 20.1% 343rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 172nd | 31.4% 208th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 173rd | 0.32 7th |
The widest gap: SMU's defense (50th) against Ball State's offense (315th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Ball State 28, SMU 40
- First-half margin
- SMU by 12.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.8
- Projected second half
- Ball State 33, SMU 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Ball State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 31.7 allowed
- SMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.3 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Ball State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason JonesF | 31 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Sean BlakeG | 27 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Trey LewisG | 24 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| K'Jei ParkerG | 23 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 47% to play · 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Javion Guy-KingG | 22 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Kai McGrewF | 18 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Joey HartG | 18 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jaden SmithC | 17 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 49% | |||||
Missed the last game: K'Jei Parker (28 min a game).
SMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oziyah SellersG | 25 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jaden ToombsF | 24 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Rowan BrumbaughG | 23 | 10.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr.F | 22 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jakub SzumertNA | 22 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| David Terrell Jr.G | 19 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 60% · 5+ ast 42% | |||||
| Billy White IIIF | 18 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Johan MunchF | 18 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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