Oral Roberts at SMU
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Moody Coliseum (Dallas). Oral Roberts our rank 304 · 1-2; SMU our rank 71 · 3-0.
Who will win Oral Roberts vs SMU?
The model gives SMU a 98% chance to beat Oral Roberts, with a projected score of SMU 88, Oral Roberts 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | |||||
| Szumert · 22 min | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 10+ 64% | |
| SellersG · 25 min | 12.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 62% | |
| ToombsF · 24 min | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| O'Neal Jr.F · 22 min | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 55% | |
| Oral Roberts | |||||
| GrayF · 26 min | 14.9 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 15+ 48% | |
| WilliamsG · 30 min | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| DowG · 32 min | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 46% | |
| FurnishG · 28 min | 7.0 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaden Toombs: Oral Roberts 3%SMU 97%
The white mark is the call with him: SMU 98%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | SMU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | ||||
| Jaden Toombs | 2.7 | 97% | −1 | 66–87 |
| Oziyah Sellers | 2.6 | 97% | −1 | 66–87 |
| Rowan Brumbaugh | 1.9 | 97% | −1 | 65–88 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. | 1.8 | 98% | 0 | 65–88 |
Change is in SMU's win chance, in points. Scores read Oral Roberts, then SMU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oral Roberts 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 71-80at TulsaCovered +18.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 7W 94-39vs Northwestern (OK)
- Nov 2L 55-85at C Arkansas
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 73.3 and allowing 68.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oral Roberts | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.5 282nd | 110.8 86th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.5 316th | 99.4 50th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.1% 330th | 53.0% 42nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 166th | 48.5% 45th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 277th | 20.1% 343rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.8% 11th | 31.4% 208th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 162nd | 0.32 7th |
The widest gap: SMU's defense (50th) against Oral Roberts's offense (282nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oral Roberts 29, SMU 42
- First-half margin
- SMU by 13.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.7
- Projected second half
- Oral Roberts 35, SMU 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oral Roberts, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 33.7 allowed
- SMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.3 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oral Roberts
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor DowG | 32 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Boden WilliamsG | 30 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Cal FurnishG | 28 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Luke GrayF | 26 | 14.9 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Martins KilupsG | 23 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Chase MartinG | 19 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Amire RobinsonG | 15 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Alex CoutoG | 15 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
Missed the last game: Alex Couto (18 min a game).
SMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oziyah SellersG | 25 | 12.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jaden ToombsF | 24 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Rowan BrumbaughG | 23 | 10.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr.F | 22 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Jakub SzumertNA | 22 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| David Terrell Jr.G | 19 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 40% · 5+ ast 47% | |||||
| Billy White IIIF | 18 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Johan MunchF | 18 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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