UNC Greensboro at Santa Barbara
Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at The Thunderdome. UNC Greensboro our rank 282 · 2-2; Santa Barbara our rank 109 · 3-0.
Who will win UNC Greensboro vs Santa Barbara?
The model gives UC Santa Barbara a 91% chance to beat UNC Greensboro, with a projected score of Santa Barbara 83, UNC Greensboro 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Barbara | |||||
| MahaneyG · 29 min | 13.2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 15+ 38% | |
| ShawG · 26 min | 12.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| LittleG · 25 min | 10.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 10+ 52% | |
| VartiainenG · 18 min | 9.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 48% | |
| UNC Greensboro | |||||
| NealG · 30 min | 13.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 15+ 37% | |
| GreerG · 29 min | 11.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 10+ 60% | |
| GrantG · 31 min | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| ManiG · 26 min | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Miro Little: UNC Greensboro 12%Santa Barbara 88%
The white mark is the call with him: Santa Barbara 91%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Santa Barbara without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Barbara | ||||
| Miro Little | 1.7 | 88% | −3 | 68–82 |
| CJ Shaw | 1.3 | 89% | −2 | 68–82 |
| Marvin McGhee IV | 1.1 | 89% | −2 | 68–82 |
| Aidan Mahaney | 1.0 | 90% | −1 | 68–82 |
| UNC Greensboro | ||||
| Ante Beljan | 0.6 | 92% | +1 | 67–83 |
Change is in Santa Barbara's win chance, in points. Scores read UNC Greensboro, then Santa Barbara. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UNC Greensboro 2-2WLLW
- Nov 11W 91-84vs Lees McRae
- Nov 9L 72-82at UICCovered +19.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 6L 65-74at ElonCovered +9.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 3W 96-43vs Milligan
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 81.0 and allowing 70.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Santa Barbara 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 76-63vs NevadaCovered −1.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 7W 90-67vs OaklandCovered −13.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2W 85-55vs San Francisco State
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.7 and allowing 61.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UNC Greensboro | Santa Barbara | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.2 218th | 108.9 103rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.5 330th | 104.8 114th |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 215th | 69.3 322nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.4% 111th | 51.7% 95th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 86th | 51.1% 224th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 164th | 17.4% 102nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 219th | 30.8% 240th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 252nd | 0.28 94th |
The widest gap: Santa Barbara's offense (103rd) against UNC Greensboro's defense (330th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UNC Greensboro 31, Santa Barbara 39
- First-half margin
- Santa Barbara by 8.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Projected second half
- UNC Greensboro 36, Santa Barbara 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UNC Greensboro, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 35.2 allowed
- Santa Barbara, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 25.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UNC Greensboro
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron GrantG | 31 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Dionte NealG | 30 | 13.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| RJ GreerG | 29 | 11.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Jon ManiG | 26 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Zavier FitchF | 22 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Vernon Collins Jr.F | 16 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Ante BeljanF | 16 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 77% to play · 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 41% | |||||
| Charles BarnesG | 15 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Santa Barbara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan MahaneyG | 29 | 13.2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| CJ ShawG | 26 | 12.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Miro LittleG | 25 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 43% · 5+ ast 47% | |||||
| Marvin McGhee IVG | 22 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Eric DibamiC | 21 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| RJ SmithG | 21 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Viljami VartiainenG | 18 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Antonio CholF | 14 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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