Elon at South Carolina
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Colonial Life Arena. Elon our rank 184 · 2-1; South Carolina our rank 86 · 3-0.
Who will win Elon vs South Carolina?
The model gives South Carolina a 88% chance to beat Elon, with a projected score of South Carolina 78, Elon 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | |||||
| FernandezF · 24 min | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 63% | |
| JohnsonG · 23 min | 11.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| MincyG · 26 min | 9.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 10+ 41% | |
| NecasF · 28 min | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 39% | |
| Elon | |||||
| DaltonF · 28 min | 11.5 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| CokleyG · 25 min | 9.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 46% | |
| HardingC · 21 min | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 5+ 65% | |
| Pettus IIG · 25 min | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kory Mincy: Elon 16%South Carolina 84%
The white mark is the call with him: South Carolina 88%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | South Carolina without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | ||||
| Kory Mincy | 2.2 | 84% | −4 | 66–77 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas | 2.0 | 84% | −4 | 66–77 |
| Davion Hannah | 1.8 | 85% | −3 | 66–77 |
| Jakub Necas | 1.6 | 85% | −3 | 66–77 |
| Elon | ||||
| Josh Dalton | 0.8 | 90% | +2 | 65–79 |
| Raúl Villar | 0.7 | 90% | +2 | 65–79 |
| Bryson Cokley | 0.5 | 89% | +1 | 65–79 |
Change is in South Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read Elon, then South Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Elon 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 50-69at G WashingtonDidn't cover +13.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 6W 74-65vs UNC GreensboroDidn't cover −9.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 2W 84-71at Columbia
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 69.3 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
South Carolina 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 77-41vs Saint Peter'sCovered −21.5 · Under 126.5
- Nov 8W 78-68vs SE MissouriDidn't cover −17.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 3W 81-55vs Stetson
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 54.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Elon | South Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.0 200th | 109.0 101st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.6 189th | 100.2 62nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.0 266th | 69.7 292nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 186th | 50.7% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.7% 51st | 49.4% 103rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.7% 257th | 17.6% 121st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 51st | 32.9% 113th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 161st | 0.31 22nd |
The widest gap: South Carolina's defense (62nd) against Elon's offense (200th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Elon 30, South Carolina 37
- First-half margin
- South Carolina by 7.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.2
- Projected second half
- Elon 35, South Carolina 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Elon, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.7 scored, 24.3 allowed
- South Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Elon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh DaltonF | 28 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Raúl VillarG | 28 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Randall Pettus IIG | 25 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Bryson CokleyG | 25 | 9.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Hunter HardingC | 21 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Isaiah MbengG | 20 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Cam ThrowerG | 16 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Caleb ZhuF | 13 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 45% | |||||
South Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub NecasF | 28 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Kory MincyG | 26 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Camden HeideF | 25 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 46% to play · 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Aleksas BieliauskasF | 25 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Juan FernandezF | 24 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Marcus JohnsonG | 23 | 11.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Shane BlakeneyG | 20 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Davion HannahG | 19 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Camden Heide (29 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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