Who won Elon vs Columbia?
Final: Elon 84, Columbia 71. Before tip-off the model gave Elon a 27% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 7.7 points for Columbia. Josh Dalton scored 21 for Elon; Gerard O'Keefe had 14 for Columbia.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Connor Igoe: Elon 30%Columbia 70%
The white mark is the call with him: Columbia 73%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Columbia without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Columbia | ||||
| Connor Igoe | 1.1 | 70% | −3 | 65–72 |
 Elon | ||||
| Josh Dalton | 0.8 | 75% | +2 | 65–73 |
| Raúl Villar | 0.7 | 75% | +2 | 65–73 |
| Bryson Cokley | 0.5 | 75% | +2 | 65–73 |
Change is in Columbia's win chance, in points. Scores read Elon, then Columbia. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Elon
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Columbia
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Elon | Columbia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.0 200th | 104.1 181st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.6 189th | 110.4 238th |
| Possessions a game | 70.0 266th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 186th | 49.1% 286th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.7% 51st | 52.7% 319th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.7% 257th | 18.0% 180th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 51st | 34.0% 61st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 161st | 0.23 319th |
The widest gap: Elon's offense (200th) against Columbia's defense (238th), of 365 teams.
First half
Elon led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 16.2 points and the total by 3.5.
- At halftime
- Elon 40, Columbia 28
- Projected halftime score
- Elon 30, Columbia 34
- First-half margin
- Columbia by 4.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Elon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Pettus IIG | 29 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh DaltonF | 28 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| Raúl VillarG | 27 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Hunter HardingC | 25 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 1 |
| Cam ThrowerG | 24 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Bryson CokleyG | 23 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Isaiah MbengG | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Caleb ZhuF | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Iker GarmendiaF | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Columbia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard O'KeefeG | 32 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Connor IgoeF | 29 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| Hampton SandersG | 28 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael MaduemeG | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh PrattG | 24 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Mason RitterF | 23 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Douglas LangfordF | 18 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Josiah CunninghamG | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Gabe HornbergerG | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |