Notre Dame v Florida
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 4:30 PM ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Notre Dame our rank 59 · 4-0; Florida AP 1, our rank 3 · 3-0.
Who will win Notre Dame vs Florida?
The model gives Florida a 91% chance to beat Notre Dame, with a projected score of Florida 84, Notre Dame 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | |||||
| HaughF · 32 min | 16.9 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 15+ 60% | |
| CondonF · 30 min | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 10+ 63% | |
| ChinyeluC · 28 min | 11.8 | 10.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 61% | |
| FlandG · 30 min | 10.5 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 10+ 52% | |
| Notre Dame | |||||
| RobertsG · 24 min | 16.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 15+ 56% | |
| DuncombC · 22 min | 11.4 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 58% | |
| KoehlerF · 24 min | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 53% | |
| ShrewsberryG · 28 min | 9.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Thomas Haugh: Notre Dame 21%Florida 79%
The white mark is the call with him: Florida 91%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Florida without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | ||||
| Thomas Haugh | 5.8 | 79% | −12 | 72–81 |
| Rueben Chinyelu | 5.3 | 80% | −11 | 71–81 |
| Alex Condon | 5.2 | 80% | −11 | 71–81 |
| Boogie Fland | 4.3 | 82% | −9 | 71–81 |
| Notre Dame | ||||
| Braeden Smith | 3.3 | 95% | +4 | 67–85 |
| Logan Duncomb | 3.1 | 95% | +4 | 67–85 |
| Brady Koehler | 2.1 | 93% | +2 | 68–85 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry | 2.0 | 93% | +2 | 68–85 |
Change is in Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read Notre Dame, then Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Notre Dame 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 99-59vs SC StateCovered −26.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 9W 94-70vs E IllinoisDidn't cover −28.5 · Over 139.5
- Nov 5W 83-56vs MercyhurstCovered −21.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 1W 74-72vs Villanova
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 87.5 and allowing 64.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 0 under
Florida 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 81-72at Florida StCovered −8.5 · Under 164.5
- Nov 5W 88-57vs JacksonvilleDidn't cover −36.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 77-67vs Miami
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 82.0 and allowing 65.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Notre Dame | Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.1 67th | 123.0 3rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.2 46th | 90.0 5th |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 196th | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.9% 6th | 52.3% 70th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.2% 162nd | 46.9% 14th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 177th | 18.6% 251st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 197th | 36.0% 9th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 249th | 0.32 15th |
The widest gap: Florida's defense (5th) against Notre Dame's offense (67th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Notre Dame 32, Florida 40
- First-half margin
- Florida by 8.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.5
- Projected second half
- Notre Dame 37, Florida 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Notre Dame, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Florida, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Notre Dame
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braeden ShrewsberryG | 28 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Braeden SmithG | 25 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 60% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Ethan RobertsG | 24 | 16.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Brady KoehlerF | 24 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Logan DuncombC | 22 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Logan ImesG | 16 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jonathan SandersonG | 15 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Bryce Ruglass DortchF | 13 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3+ reb 44% | |||||
Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas HaughF | 32 | 16.9 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Boogie FlandG | 30 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Alex CondonF | 30 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 8+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Rueben ChinyeluC | 28 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 11+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Denzel AberdeenG | 27 | 10.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Urban KlavzarG | 20 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 36% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Isaiah BrownG | 13 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Domen PetrovicF | 13 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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