Abilene Chrstn at S Dakota St
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at First Bank & Trust Arena. Abilene Chrstn our rank 275 · 1-2; S Dakota St our rank 141 · 3-0.
Who will win Abilene Chrstn vs S Dakota St?
The model gives South Dakota State a 82% chance to beat Abilene Christian, with a projected score of S Dakota St 80, Abilene Chrstn 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dakota St | |||||
| SaylerG · 32 min | 14.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 15+ 44% | |
| GarryG · 28 min | 12.6 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 15+ 34% | |
| MekonnenF · 26 min | 11.4 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| KernF · 27 min | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 57% | |
| Abilene Chrstn | |||||
| Marie-AnaisF · 26 min | 10.8 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 54% | |
| DyeG · 29 min | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 10+ 51% | |
| PonsG · 25 min | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 44% | |
| BoisdurG · 27 min | 9.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 10+ 42% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Alec Squires: Abilene Chrstn 21%S Dakota St 79%
The white mark is the call with him: S Dakota St 82%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | S Dakota St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dakota St | ||||
| Alec Squires | 1.1 | 79% | −3 | 70–79 |
| Joe Sayler | 1.1 | 79% | −3 | 70–79 |
| Jon Mekonnen | 1.1 | 79% | −3 | 70–79 |
| Kalen Garry | 1.1 | 79% | −3 | 70–79 |
| Abilene Chrstn | ||||
| Timéo Pons | 0.7 | 83% | +1 | 69–80 |
Change is in S Dakota St's win chance, in points. Scores read Abilene Chrstn, then S Dakota St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Abilene Chrstn 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 71-76vs SF AustinCovered +6.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 7W 83-81vs LamarCovered +1.5 · Under 167.5
- Nov 2L 59-94at Colorado
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 71.0 and allowing 83.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
S Dakota St 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 81-69vs ValparaisoCovered +2.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 6W 71-49vs Briar Cliff
- Nov 3W 68-66at Kansas St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 73.3 and allowing 61.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Abilene Chrstn | S Dakota St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.3 240th | 104.8 165th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.0 314th | 106.7 145th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.5% 251st | 51.4% 112th |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.5% 357th | 48.7% 55th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 225th | 16.6% 33rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 220th | 29.1% 323rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 206th | 0.26 210th |
The widest gap: S Dakota St's offense (165th) against Abilene Chrstn's defense (314th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Abilene Chrstn 32, S Dakota St 38
- First-half margin
- S Dakota St by 5.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.0
- Projected second half
- Abilene Chrstn 37, S Dakota St 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Abilene Chrstn, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
- S Dakota St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Abilene Chrstn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac DyeG | 29 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Yaniel RiveraG | 29 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Evan BoisdurG | 27 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 40% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Willan Marie-AnaisF | 26 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Timéo PonsG | 25 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Xabi LopezG | 17 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Victor Yimga MoukouriF | 16 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Drew HaffnerG | 15 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
S Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe SaylerG | 32 | 14.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| EJ RyansG | 29 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Kalen GarryG | 28 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Davis KernF | 27 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Jon MekonnenF | 26 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Alec SquiresC | 22 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Trey BuchananG | 14 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Semaj StampleyG | 13 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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