S Dakota St v N Colorado
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at The Monument. S Dakota St our rank 141 · 3-0; N Colorado our rank 204 · 2-1.
Who will win S Dakota St vs N Colorado?
The model gives South Dakota State a 62% chance to beat Northern Colorado, with a projected score of S Dakota St 77, N Colorado 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dakota St | |||||
| SaylerG · 32 min | 14.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 15+ 44% | |
| GarryG · 28 min | 12.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| MekonnenF · 27 min | 11.3 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| KernF · 27 min | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| N Colorado | |||||
| ReynoldsG · 28 min | 9.6 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| CrawfordF · 24 min | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 35% | |
| ShareefF · 18 min | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 32% | |
| CaldwellC · 20 min | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Alec Squires: S Dakota St 58%N Colorado 42%
The white mark is the call with him: S Dakota St 62%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | S Dakota St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dakota St | ||||
| Alec Squires | 1.1 | 58% | −4 | 77–74 |
| Joe Sayler | 1.1 | 58% | −4 | 77–74 |
| Jon Mekonnen | 1.1 | 58% | −4 | 77–74 |
| Kalen Garry | 1.1 | 59% | −3 | 77–74 |
| N Colorado | ||||
| Langston Reynolds | 1.3 | 66% | +4 | 78–73 |
Change is in S Dakota St's win chance, in points. Scores read S Dakota St, then N Colorado. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
S Dakota St 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 81-69vs ValparaisoCovered +2.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 6W 71-49vs Briar Cliff
- Nov 3W 68-66at Kansas St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 73.3 and allowing 61.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
N Colorado 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 102-52vs Northern New Mexico
- Nov 6L 63-90at Arizona StDidn't cover +19.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 117-64vs Colorado College
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 94.0 and allowing 68.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| S Dakota St | N Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.8 165th | 104.9 163rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.7 145th | 111.5 279th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.4% 112th | 51.0% 141st |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.7% 55th | 51.3% 245th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 33rd | 18.1% 188th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 323rd | 30.8% 239th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 210th | 0.25 254th |
The widest gap: S Dakota St's offense (165th) against N Colorado's defense (279th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- S Dakota St 37, N Colorado 35
- First-half margin
- S Dakota St by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- S Dakota St 41, N Colorado 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- S Dakota St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
- N Colorado, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 28.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
S Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe SaylerG | 32 | 14.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| EJ RyansG | 30 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Kalen GarryG | 28 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Davis KernF | 27 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Jon MekonnenF | 27 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Alec SquiresC | 22 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Trey BuchananG | 13 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Semaj StampleyG | 13 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
N Colorado
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Langston ReynoldsG | 28 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 49% · 5+ ast 43% | |||||
| Andrew CrawfordF | 24 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Vincent DelanoG | 20 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Hunter CaldwellC | 20 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Kaidon RayfieldF | 19 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Manning ShareefF | 18 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Chiante' TrambleG | 15 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Steven Ramirez Jr.G | 15 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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