S Dakota St at Idaho St
Friday, November 20, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Reed Gym. S Dakota St our rank 141 · 3-0; Idaho St our rank 309 · 0-3.
Who will win S Dakota St vs Idaho St?
The model gives South Dakota State a 72% chance to beat Idaho State, with a projected score of S Dakota St 78, Idaho St 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dakota St | |||||
| SaylerG · 32 min | 14.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 15+ 44% | |
| GarryG · 28 min | 12.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| MekonnenF · 26 min | 11.3 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| KernF · 27 min | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| Idaho St | |||||
| MorrisG · 33 min | 16.6 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 15+ 58% | |
| JohnsonF · 22 min | 8.9 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 10+ 40% | |
| DeMuynckF · 24 min | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 5+ 68% | |
| PalmerF · 18 min | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Alec Squires: S Dakota St 69%Idaho St 31%
The white mark is the call with him: S Dakota St 72%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | S Dakota St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dakota St | ||||
| Alec Squires | 1.1 | 69% | −3 | 78–72 |
| Joe Sayler | 1.1 | 69% | −3 | 78–72 |
| Jon Mekonnen | 1.1 | 69% | −3 | 78–72 |
| Kalen Garry | 1.1 | 69% | −3 | 78–72 |
Change is in S Dakota St's win chance, in points. Scores read S Dakota St, then Idaho St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
S Dakota St 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 81-69vs ValparaisoCovered +2.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 6W 71-49vs Briar Cliff
- Nov 3W 68-66at Kansas St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 73.3 and allowing 61.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| S Dakota St | Idaho St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.8 165th | 100.6 254th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.7 145th | 115.0 338th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.4% 112th | 47.2% 351st |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.7% 55th | 49.9% 142nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 33rd | 18.6% 247th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 323rd | 33.6% 78th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 210th | 0.29 55th |
The widest gap: S Dakota St's offense (165th) against Idaho St's defense (338th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- S Dakota St 37, Idaho St 33
- First-half margin
- S Dakota St by 3.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Projected second half
- S Dakota St 41, Idaho St 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- S Dakota St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Idaho St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.3 scored, 40.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
S Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe SaylerG | 32 | 14.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| EJ RyansG | 29 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Kalen GarryG | 28 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Davis KernF | 27 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Jon MekonnenF | 26 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Alec SquiresC | 22 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Trey BuchananG | 14 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Semaj StampleyG | 13 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Idaho St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaCarhy MorrisG | 33 | 16.6 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Kenyon DeMuynckF | 24 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Malachi JohnsonF | 22 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Nathan AmoranG | 20 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ike PalmerF | 18 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Ty VirgilG | 17 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Eli GarnerG | 16 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Joven DulayG | 15 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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