Sacramento St at Stanford
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Maples Pavilion. Sacramento St our rank 227 · 1-1; Stanford our rank 78 · 3-0.
Who will win Sacramento St vs Stanford?
The model gives Stanford a 94% chance to beat Sacramento State, with a projected score of Stanford 85, Sacramento St 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | |||||
| TownsendF · 32 min | 19.6 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 20+ 47% | |
| BlissG · 25 min | 12.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 10+ 62% | |
| PriceG · 30 min | 11.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| CammannF · 22 min | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 39% | |
| Sacramento St | |||||
| Hughes IIG · 29 min | 14.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 15+ 44% | |
| WilliamsG · 30 min | 13.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 15+ 40% | |
| WilsonG · 24 min | 9.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 10+ 46% | |
| GradyF · 27 min | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Nick Townsend: Sacramento St 12%Stanford 88%
The white mark is the call with him: Stanford 94%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Stanford without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | ||||
| Nick Townsend | 4.4 | 88% | −6 | 69–82 |
| Aidan Cammann | 2.0 | 91% | −3 | 68–84 |
| Austin Maurer | 1.7 | 92% | −2 | 68–84 |
| Christian Bliss | 1.7 | 92% | −2 | 68–84 |
| Sacramento St | ||||
| Marcus Wilson | 0.8 | 95% | +1 | 66–85 |
| Larry Hughes II | 0.8 | 95% | +1 | 66–85 |
Change is in Stanford's win chance, in points. Scores read Sacramento St, then Stanford. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Sacramento St 1-1WL
- Nov 7L 77-83at Santa ClaraCovered +19.5 · Under 170.5
- Nov 2W 90-74vs Jessup
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 83.5 and allowing 78.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Sacramento St | Stanford | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.9 273rd | 111.0 84th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.9 171st | 101.3 74th |
| Possessions a game | 73.4 12th | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 154th | 50.7% 168th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.9% 65th | 50.7% 195th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 126th | 18.3% 209th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 321st | 29.5% 307th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 99th | 0.26 212th |
The widest gap: Stanford's defense (74th) against Sacramento St's offense (273rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Sacramento St 31, Stanford 40
- First-half margin
- Stanford by 9.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- Sacramento St 36, Stanford 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Sacramento St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 43.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
- Stanford, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.0 scored, 30.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Sacramento St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikey WilliamsG | 30 | 13.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Larry Hughes IIG | 29 | 14.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 41% · 3+ threes 47% | |||||
| Osiris GradyF | 27 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Marcus WilsonG | 24 | 9.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Taj GloverG | 18 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Sasa CianiF | 14 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Chidi NwigweG | 11 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Arman MadiG | 10 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Stanford
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick TownsendF | 32 | 19.6 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| 20+ pts 47% · 7+ reb 52% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Julius PriceG | 30 | 11.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Christian BlissG | 25 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Aziz OlajuwonG | 23 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Aidan CammannF | 22 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Isaiah RogersG | 20 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Austin MaurerC | 19 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Evan StinsonF | 12 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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