Who will win Rider vs Miami?
The model gives Miami a >99% chance to beat Rider, with a projected score of Miami 91, Rider 53.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miami | |||||
| ReneauF · 22 min | 14.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 15+ 44% | |
| HendersonF · 26 min | 13.5 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 15+ 40% | |
| LewisG · 28 min | 11.0 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 10+ 55% | |
| CyrilC · 22 min | 10.8 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 54% | |
 Rider | |||||
| FarmerG · 24 min | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 5+ 68% | |
| BriscoF · 21 min | 6.5 | 3.8 | 0.1 | 5+ 60% | |
| ButlerG · 22 min | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 5+ 44% | |
| BakerG · 25 min | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 5+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Acaden Lewis: Rider <1%Miami >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Miami >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Miami without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | ||||
| Acaden Lewis | 3.8 | >99% | 0 | 55–89 |
| Malik Reneau | 3.5 | >99% | 0 | 55–89 |
| Somto Cyril | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 55–89 |
| Shelton Henderson | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 55–89 |
Change is in Miami's win chance, in points. Scores read Rider, then Miami. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Rider 1-3LLLW
- Nov 11W 83-53vs William Paterson
- Nov 8L 63-75at BinghamtonDidn't cover +7.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 5L 55-66vs New HampshireDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 141.5
- Nov 2L 57-95at Pitt
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 64.5 and allowing 72.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Rider | Miami | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.8 355th | 115.0 51st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.9 346th | 93.9 17th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 71.4 111th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 361st | 49.0% 287th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.0% 330th | 48.5% 47th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 141st | 17.8% 155th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.2% 94th | 33.1% 97th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 229th | 0.24 285th |
The widest gap: Miami's defense (17th) against Rider's offense (355th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Rider 23, Miami 44
- First-half margin
- Miami by 20.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.6
- Projected second half
- Rider 30, Miami 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Rider, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.5 scored, 35.8 allowed
- Miami, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 30.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Rider
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce BakerG | 25 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Khalil FarmerG | 24 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Ty BevinsG | 24 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Mark ButlerG | 22 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 33% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Rich BriscoF | 21 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| Richie RosaG | 16 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Horace Simmons Jr.F | 15 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| JJ WashingtonG | 14 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Miami
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acaden LewisG | 28 | 11.0 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 42% · 6+ ast 48% | |||||
| Shelton HendersonF | 26 | 13.5 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Malik ReneauF | 22 | 14.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Caleb GaskinsF | 22 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Somto CyrilC | 22 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Dante AllenG | 19 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Nick DornG | 17 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Brent BlandG | 15 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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