Bakersfield at N Dakota St
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Scheels Center. Bakersfield our rank 203 · 3-0; N Dakota St our rank 219 · 1-3.
Who will win Bakersfield vs N Dakota St?
The model gives North Dakota State a 56% chance to beat Cal State Bakersfield, with a projected score of N Dakota St 80, Bakersfield 79.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Dakota St | |||||
| Diaz IIIG · 29 min | 14.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 15+ 44% | |
| IversenG · 25 min | 11.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 56% | |
| NagyF · 26 min | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| MasseyG · 21 min | 8.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 40% | |
| Bakersfield | |||||
| AlexanderG · 35 min | 19.2 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 20+ 45% | |
| BradleyG · 32 min | 18.7 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 20+ 42% | |
| CofieldG · 28 min | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| KoppensF · 31 min | 9.8 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 46% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rob Diaz III: Bakersfield 47%N Dakota St 53%
The white mark is the call with him: N Dakota St 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | N Dakota St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Dakota St | ||||
| Rob Diaz III | 0.9 | 53% | −3 | 79–80 |
| Bakersfield | ||||
| Bryce Cofield | 0.8 | 59% | +3 | 78–81 |
| Kjay Bradley | 0.5 | 58% | +2 | 78–81 |
Change is in N Dakota St's win chance, in points. Scores read Bakersfield, then N Dakota St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Bakersfield 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 91-83at W IllinoisDidn't cover −9.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 8W 91-80vs N Dakota StCovered +2.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 5W 93-54vs Stanton
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.7 and allowing 72.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
N Dakota St 1-3WLLL
- Nov 8L 80-91at BakersfieldDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 6L 70-79at San FranciscoDidn't cover +8.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 4L 64-105at Saint Mary'sDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 2W 90-59vs Crookston (MN)
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 76.0 and allowing 83.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bakersfield | N Dakota St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.7 169th | 105.5 151st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 270th | 112.7 304th |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 37th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.3% 26th | 50.1% 215th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.8% 276th | 56.9% 364th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.3% 18th | 16.5% 30th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 284th | 33.9% 66th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.31 26th | 0.22 343rd |
The widest gap: Bakersfield's offense (169th) against N Dakota St's defense (304th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Bakersfield 37, N Dakota St 38
- First-half margin
- N Dakota St by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.7
- Projected second half
- Bakersfield 42, N Dakota St 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Bakersfield, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 30.7 allowed
- N Dakota St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 31.8 scored, 38.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Bakersfield
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden AlexanderG | 35 | 19.2 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| 20+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Kjay BradleyG | 32 | 18.7 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 1.0 |
| 20+ pts 42% · 6+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Tom KoppensF | 31 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Bryce CofieldG | 28 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Petar IvancicF | 20 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Chudi DiorammaF | 18 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Kristian PayneG | 11 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
N Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Diaz IIIG | 29 | 14.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Andrew NagyF | 26 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Andy StefonowiczG | 26 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 |
| 49% to play · 10+ pts 35% · 5+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Max IversenG | 25 | 11.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Melvin Bell Jr.G | 24 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Riley MasseyG | 21 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Carson SmithG | 18 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Kaden TateF | 18 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Missed the last game: Andy Stefonowicz (26 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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