Bakersfield at Idaho
Friday, November 20, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at ICCU Arena. Bakersfield our rank 203 · 3-0; Idaho our rank 193 · 2-1.
Who will win Bakersfield vs Idaho?
The model gives Idaho a 61% chance to beat Cal State Bakersfield, with a projected score of Idaho 81, Bakersfield 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | |||||
| WynottG · 26 min | 13.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 15+ 37% | |
| GonzalezG · 22 min | 10.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 55% | |
| WardF · 26 min | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 50% | |
| JobaF · 19 min | 8.2 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 10+ 35% | |
| Bakersfield | |||||
| AlexanderG · 35 min | 18.9 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 20+ 43% | |
| BradleyG · 31 min | 18.3 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 20+ 40% | |
| CofieldG · 28 min | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| KoppensF · 31 min | 9.6 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Miles Klapper: Bakersfield 41%Idaho 59%
The white mark is the call with him: Idaho 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Idaho without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | ||||
| Miles Klapper | 0.6 | 59% | −2 | 78–80 |
| Bakersfield | ||||
| Bryce Cofield | 0.8 | 64% | +3 | 77–81 |
| Kjay Bradley | 0.5 | 63% | +2 | 77–81 |
Change is in Idaho's win chance, in points. Scores read Bakersfield, then Idaho. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Bakersfield 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 91-83at W IllinoisDidn't cover −9.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 8W 91-80vs N Dakota StCovered +2.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 5W 93-54vs Stanton
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.7 and allowing 72.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Idaho 2-1WLW
- Nov 8W 108-69vs Lincoln (CA)
- Nov 6L 67-78at Colorado StCovered +16.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 97-56vs George Fox
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 90.7 and allowing 67.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bakersfield | Idaho | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.7 169th | 104.0 183rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 270th | 110.3 236th |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 37th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.3% 26th | 50.4% 190th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.8% 276th | 50.5% 189th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.3% 18th | 17.5% 120th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 284th | 30.7% 255th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.31 26th | 0.25 248th |
The widest gap: Idaho's offense (183rd) against Bakersfield's defense (270th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Bakersfield 36, Idaho 38
- First-half margin
- Idaho by 1.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.2
- Projected second half
- Bakersfield 41, Idaho 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Bakersfield, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 30.7 allowed
- Idaho, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.3 scored, 30.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Bakersfield
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden AlexanderG | 35 | 18.9 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kjay BradleyG | 31 | 18.3 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% · 5+ ast 58% | |||||
| Tom KoppensF | 31 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Bryce CofieldG | 28 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Petar IvancicF | 20 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Chudi DiorammaF | 18 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Kristian PayneG | 11 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Idaho
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles KlapperG | 26 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ ast 58% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Hudson WardF | 26 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Kase WynottG | 26 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Kristian GonzalezG | 22 | 10.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Seth JobaF | 19 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Ryan LaffertyG | 16 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Diego Trejo-DelgadoF | 14 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Brady KennisonG | 13 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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