UNC Greensboro at Gardner-Webb
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Paul Porter Arena. UNC Greensboro our rank 282 · 2-2; Gardner-Webb our rank 355 · 1-2.
Who will win UNC Greensboro vs Gardner-Webb?
The model gives UNC Greensboro a 67% chance to beat Gardner-Webb, with a projected score of UNC Greensboro 78, Gardner-Webb 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Greensboro | |||||
| NealG · 32 min | 15.1 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 15+ 50% | |
| GreerG · 30 min | 13.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 15+ 40% | |
| GrantG · 32 min | 11.2 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 56% | |
| ManiG · 27 min | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 38% | |
| Gardner-Webb | |||||
| BrownG · 25 min | 11.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| PocknettF · 25 min | 10.1 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 49% | |
| HudsonG · 23 min | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 43% | |
| FerereG · 21 min | 8.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ante Beljan: UNC Greensboro 65%Gardner-Webb 35%
The white mark is the call with him: UNC Greensboro 67%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UNC Greensboro without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Greensboro | ||||
| Ante Beljan | 0.6 | 65% | −2 | 78–73 |
Change is in UNC Greensboro's win chance, in points. Scores read UNC Greensboro, then Gardner-Webb. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UNC Greensboro 2-2WLLW
- Nov 11W 91-84vs Lees McRae
- Nov 9L 72-82at UICCovered +19.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 6L 65-74at ElonCovered +9.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 3W 96-43vs Milligan
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 81.0 and allowing 70.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Gardner-Webb 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 61.3 and allowing 83.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UNC Greensboro | Gardner-Webb | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.2 218th | 92.9 353rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.5 330th | 114.7 332nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 215th | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.4% 111th | 48.0% 334th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 86th | 52.6% 316th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 164th | 20.2% 346th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 219th | 26.9% 358th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 252nd | 0.29 46th |
The widest gap: UNC Greensboro's offense (218th) against Gardner-Webb's defense (332nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UNC Greensboro 37, Gardner-Webb 34
- First-half margin
- UNC Greensboro by 2.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.7
- Projected second half
- UNC Greensboro 41, Gardner-Webb 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UNC Greensboro, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 35.2 allowed
- Gardner-Webb, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 25.7 scored, 42.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UNC Greensboro
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron GrantG | 32 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Dionte NealG | 32 | 15.1 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 53% | |||||
| RJ GreerG | 30 | 13.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Jon ManiG | 27 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Zavier FitchF | 22 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Ante BeljanF | 16 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 77% to play · 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
| Vernon Collins Jr.F | 16 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Charles BarnesG | 15 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Gardner-Webb
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth BrownG | 25 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Mikhali PocknettF | 25 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Sam NosakhareC | 24 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 6+ reb 55% | |||||
| Jacob HudsonG | 23 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Rue WellsG | 22 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jamias FerereG | 21 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Ace TalbertG | 20 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Jackson SkipperF | 20 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…