Who will win FIU vs UAB?
The model gives UAB a 65% chance to beat Florida International, with a projected score of UAB 80, FIU 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UAB | |||||
| JonesG · 29 min | 15.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 15+ 54% | |
| FernandezG · 26 min | 14.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 15+ 48% | |
| DuvalG · 19 min | 10.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| ElyzeeG · 28 min | 9.7 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 46% | |
 FIU | |||||
| Saine Jr.G · 33 min | 19.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 20+ 45% | |
| BeamerG · 26 min | 12.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 10+ 65% | |
| MendyG · 24 min | 9.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 10+ 43% | |
| N'DiayeF · 23 min | 8.2 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Deuce Jones: FIU 38%UAB 62%
The white mark is the call with him: UAB 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UAB without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | ||||
| Deuce Jones | 0.9 | 62% | −3 | 76–79 |
| T.J. Caldwell | 0.5 | 63% | −2 | 76–80 |
| FIU | ||||
| Tijan Saine Jr. | 1.8 | 70% | +5 | 75–81 |
Change is in UAB's win chance, in points. Scores read FIU, then UAB. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
FIU 2-0WW
- Nov 6W 85-75vs West FloridaDidn't cover −16.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 2W 101-58vs New College
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 93.0 and allowing 66.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FIU | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.0 246th | 104.2 176th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.1 173rd | 109.9 222nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.9 24th | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.5% 252nd | 48.1% 329th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.1% 40th | 51.8% 272nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 185th | 18.7% 255th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 213th | 32.6% 128th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 136th | 0.29 56th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- FIU 35, UAB 38
- First-half margin
- UAB by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.9
- Projected second half
- FIU 40, UAB 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- FIU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 47.5 scored, 23.5 allowed
- UAB, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 33.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
FIU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijan Saine Jr.G | 33 | 19.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| 20+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Corey CaulkerG | 28 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Trey BeamerG | 26 | 12.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Noah MendyG | 24 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Seydina N'DiayeF | 23 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Justin RomanG | 22 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Mason BlazerG | 20 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Huascar CuevasG | 14 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 47% to play · 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
UAB
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce JonesG | 29 | 15.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Jeremy ElyzeeG | 28 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Justyn FernandezG | 26 | 14.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Salim LondonG | 25 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| T.J. CaldwellG | 21 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Elijah DuvalG | 19 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Aleks AlstonF | 15 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Matt MboleC | 12 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 4+ reb 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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