Who will win UAB vs Jax State?
The model gives UAB a 55% chance to beat Jacksonville State, with a projected score of UAB 76, Jax State 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UAB | |||||
| JonesG · 29 min | 15.2 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 15+ 50% | |
| FernandezG · 27 min | 14.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 15+ 45% | |
| DuvalG · 19 min | 9.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 10+ 47% | |
| ElyzeeG · 28 min | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 10+ 43% | |
 Jax State | |||||
| StiemkeG · 32 min | 16.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 15+ 56% | |
| Lockett Jr.G · 33 min | 13.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 15+ 39% | |
| CunninghamF · 27 min | 11.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 56% | |
| CroleyF · 24 min | 7.6 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Deuce Jones: UAB 52%Jax State 48%
The white mark is the call with him: UAB 55%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UAB without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | ||||
| Deuce Jones | 0.9 | 52% | −3 | 75–75 |
| T.J. Caldwell | 0.5 | 54% | −1 | 75–74 |
| Jax State | ||||
| Leon Horner | 1.1 | 60% | +5 | 76–74 |
Change is in UAB's win chance, in points. Scores read UAB, then Jax State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UAB 2-1LWW
- Nov 9W 92-64vs Florida A&MCovered −18.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 6W 70-63vs NichollsDidn't cover −15.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 2L 78-99vs McNeese
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.0 and allowing 75.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Jax State 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 46-92at HoustonDidn't cover +33.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 5L 80-83at South AlabamaCovered +4.5 · Over 139.5
- Nov 2W 123-59vs LaGrange
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 83.0 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UAB | Jax State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.2 176th | 99.8 277th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.9 222nd | 111.0 261st |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 79th | 69.6 302nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.1% 329th | 49.6% 247th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.8% 272nd | 50.1% 153rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.7% 255th | 17.9% 162nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 128th | 30.4% 263rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 56th | 0.24 273rd |
The widest gap: UAB's offense (176th) against Jax State's defense (261st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UAB 36, Jax State 35
- First-half margin
- UAB by 0.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Projected second half
- UAB 40, Jax State 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UAB, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 33.7 allowed
- Jax State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 30.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UAB
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce JonesG | 29 | 15.2 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Jeremy ElyzeeG | 28 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Justyn FernandezG | 27 | 14.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Salim LondonG | 25 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| T.J. CaldwellG | 21 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Elijah DuvalG | 19 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Aleks AlstonF | 15 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Matt MboleC | 12 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
Jax State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Lockett Jr.G | 33 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jordan StiemkeG | 32 | 16.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 51% · 3+ threes 54% | |||||
| Naas CunninghamF | 27 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Ethan CroleyF | 24 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Leon HornerG | 23 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Kash PolkF | 14 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
| Alijah CurryF | 14 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Ma'Shy HillF | 13 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 59% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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